Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:14:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
86 0x86c5…0ce5 world 82 markets active 1h ago coverage 483d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$13 (-0%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate44%36W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$129per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$2
14 days+$9
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 83% −$9
other 15% −$7
finance 1% $0
politics 1% $0
sports 0% +$3
crypto 0% $0
tech 0% $0
culture 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -0.2% -9.7% 27% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 34 +0.4% -9.2% 41% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 39 +0.4% -9.2% 41% 0% -9.6%
all 82 -0.4% -9.9% 44% 1% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 1% -9.6%
10% -18.5% 1% -18.3%
15% -26.4% 1% -26.2%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

483d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses36 / 46
Open positions0
Markets (closed)82 / 82
History coverage483d
Avg bet$129
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 82 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $21 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $173 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 15 $167 +$6 +4%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $152 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $58 −$4 -6%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $12 $0 +2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $411 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $271 +$3 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $171 −$4 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 11 $126 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 10 $17 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $104 +$2 +2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $169 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $71 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $168 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $192 −$1 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 08 $153 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $332 −$1 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $306 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 06 $2 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $149 +$7 +5%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $10 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 02 $57 +$5 +9%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 31 $287 −$15 -5%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 31 $149 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 31 $81 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 28 $110 +$6 +6%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $2 $0 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 26 $126 +$3 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $1,065 +$1 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $148 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 24 $135 −$13 -10%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 23 $147 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 23 $118 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 15 $1,122 +$2 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 14 $40 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 13 $2,162 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 12 $156 $0 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 11 $1,172 −$6 -1%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Jan 31 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 26 $7 $0 +0%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Nov 21 $8 $0 +3%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 50,000-100,000 betwee Aug 10 $8 −$1 -8%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 04 $8 $0 +0%
Will Jennifer Geerlings-Simons be the next president of Suriname after Jul 02 $8 $0 -1%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Jul 01 $8 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 195–209 times June 27–July 4? Jul 01 $8 $0 +1%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 26 $7 $0 +1%
Will Lee Jun-seok be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 05 $2 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 1h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $4 1h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $15 1h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $4 1h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 1h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $7 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $173 25h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $173 25h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 55¢ $173 30h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 53¢ $167 31h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $16 36h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $39 36h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $97 36h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $152 40h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 31¢ $23 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 31¢ $32 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $58 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 6¢ $12 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 6¢ $5 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 6¢ $7 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $171 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $171 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $81 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $90 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $167 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $167 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $171 4d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 62¢ $126 6d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 62¢ $126 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 76¢ $17 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 283 history records