Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T15:44:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
86 0x86c2…8010 weather 893 markets active 1h ago coverage 44d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 44d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$229 (-2%) realized −$223 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%466W / 419L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day47.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$153now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$99
7 days+$6
14 days+$8
30 days−$3,038
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$198
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 83 +2.0% -7.7% 67% 67% -9.2%
≤30d 750 -25.3% -32.4% 44% 44% -33.6%
≤90d 885 +0.9% -8.7% 53% 53% -10.8%
all 885 +0.9% -8.7% 53% 53% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover47.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.7% 53% -10.8%
10% ← realistic here -17.4% 53% -19.4%
15% -25.4% 53% -27.2%
20% -32.7% 52% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$15 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$153
Realized−$223
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses466 / 419
Open positions8
Markets (closed)885 / 893
History coverage44d ⚠
Avg bet$15
Trades / day47.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 885 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 29? No 66¢ 100¢ $20 $30 +$10 (+51%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 29? No 66¢ 100¢ $20 $30 +$10 (+51%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 30? No 66¢ 74¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 30? No 66¢ 74¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 90-91°F on June 29? No 66¢ 66¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 29? No 66¢ 55¢ $20 $16 −$3 (-17%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 29? No 66¢ 40¢ $20 $12 −$8 (-39%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on June 29? No 66¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 29? Jun 29 $20 +$10 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 29? Jun 29 $20 +$10 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 28? Jun 29 $8 +$4 +52%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 29 $20 +$10 +52%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 28? Jun 28 $20 +$10 +52%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 36°C on June 28? Jun 28 $20 +$10 +52%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 28? Jun 28 $20 +$10 +52%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 28? Jun 28 $20 +$10 +52%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 28? Jun 28 $20 +$10 +52%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 28? Jun 28 $20 +$10 +52%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 28? Jun 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 28? Jun 28 $20 +$10 +52%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 28? Jun 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 28? Jun 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on June 27? Jun 27 $10 +$5 +52%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 27? Jun 27 $20 +$10 +52%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 27? Jun 27 $20 +$10 +52%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 27? Jun 27 $13 +$7 +52%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 27? Jun 27 $20 +$10 +52%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 27? Jun 27 $20 +$10 +52%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 27? Jun 27 $20 +$10 +52%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 28? Jun 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 26? Jun 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on June 25? Jun 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 25? Jun 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 24? Jun 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 24? Jun 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on June 26? Jun 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 26? Jun 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 25? Jun 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 25? Jun 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 24? Jun 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 24? Jun 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 26? Jun 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 24? Jun 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 25? Jun 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 26? Jun 27 $20 +$10 +52%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 26? Jun 27 $20 +$10 +52%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 26? Jun 27 $20 +$10 +52%
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on June 26? Jun 26 $20 +$10 +52%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 26? Jun 26 $20 +$10 +52%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 26? Jun 26 $20 +$10 +52%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 26? Jun 26 $11 +$6 +52%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 26? Jun 26 $20 +$10 +52%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 25? Jun 26 $20 +$10 +52%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 25? Jun 26 $20 +$10 +52%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 13°C on June 25? Jun 26 $20 +$10 +52%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 25? Jun 25 $13 +$7 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 25? Jun 25 $20 +$10 +51%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju Jun 25 $20 +$10 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 90-91°F on June 29? BUY No 66¢ $3 44m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 90-91°F on June 29? BUY No 66¢ $16 44m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 29? SELL No 100¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 29? SELL No 100¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 30? BUY No 66¢ $14 6h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 30? BUY No 66¢ $2 6h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 30? BUY No 66¢ $2 6h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 30? BUY No 66¢ $2 6h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 29? BUY No 66¢ $20 7h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 30? BUY No 66¢ $4 9h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 30? BUY No 66¢ $16 9h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 29? BUY No 66¢ $20 11h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on June 29? BUY No 66¢ $14 12h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on June 29? BUY No 66¢ $6 12h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 28? BUY No 66¢ $8 19h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 28? BUY No 66¢ $2 20h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 28? BUY No 66¢ $18 20h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY No 66¢ $20 20h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 29? BUY No 66¢ $20 27h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 28? BUY No 66¢ $16 27h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 28? BUY No 66¢ $3 27h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 29? BUY No 66¢ $3 28h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 29? BUY No 66¢ $2 28h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 29? BUY No 66¢ $15 28h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 29? BUY No 66¢ $0 29h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 28? BUY No 66¢ $8 30h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 28? BUY No 66¢ $6 30h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 28? BUY No 66¢ $20 30h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 28? BUY No 66¢ $6 30h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 28? BUY No 66¢ $20 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $152.66 · official $152.66 (match) · 3500 history records