Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:47:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
86 0x86c2…d2c9 crypto 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$70 (+4%) realized +$70 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate100%39W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day17.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$85
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-5.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 +4.5% -5.5% 100% 3% -5.6%
≤30d 39 +4.5% -5.5% 100% 3% -5.6%
≤90d 39 +4.5% -5.5% 100% 3% -5.6%
all 39 +4.5% -5.5% 100% 3% -5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.5% 3% -5.6%
10% -14.5% 0% -14.7%
15% -22.8% 0% -22.9%
20% -30.3% 0% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$70
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses39 / 0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)39 / 39
History coverage3d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day17.9
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 39 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 22 $108 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 22 $16 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 22 $52 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 22 $40 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 22 $59 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 22 $95 +$11 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 22 $39 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 22 $72 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 22 $51 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 22 $50 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 22 $17 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 22 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 22 $54 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 22 $15 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 22 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 22 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 22 $11 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 22 $15 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 22 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 22 $34 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 22 $37 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 22 $55 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 22 $77 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 21 $106 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 21 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 21 $106 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 21 $72 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 21 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 21 $105 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 21 $104 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 21 $104 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 20 $40 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 20 $88 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 20 $13 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 20 $29 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 20 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 20 $79 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 20 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 20 $43 +$4 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $108 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $16 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $59 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $95 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $39 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $72 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $15 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $15 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $21 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $50 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $17 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $54 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $15 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $34 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $25 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $6 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $9 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $15 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $9 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $43 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $37 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $11 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $55 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $15 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $106 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 86 history records