Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:38:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
86 0x86be…4490 other 244 markets active 2h ago coverage 119d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$3,633 (-4%) realized −$3,325 · open −$308
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate44%106W / 137L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$425per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$134est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$192now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1,971
14 days+$2,361
30 days+$2,361
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% −$9,470
sports 17% +$3,718
world 1% +$83
politics 0% +$70
culture 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +23.5% +11.7% 50% 50% +123.9%
≤30d 5 +40.7% +27.3% 60% 60% +116.6%
≤90d 121 +4.3% -5.6% 39% 39% -6.6%
all 243 -3.3% -12.5% 44% 43% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 43% -14.4%
10% -20.9% 37% -22.6%
15% -28.6% 28% -30.1%
20% -35.6% 24% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$589) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -10% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$323 vs −$288 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$192
Realized−$3,325
Unrealized−$308
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses106 / 137
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$134
Open positions1
Markets (closed)243 / 244
History coverage119d
Avg bet$425
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 243 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? No 43¢ 16¢ $500 $192 −$308 (-62%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 130 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $23 −$22 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $830 +$1,372 +165%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $483 +$622 +129%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $357 +$390 +109%
Will Fatih Karagümrük SK win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $725 −$710 -98%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-05-07? May 07 $509 −$501 -98%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-07? May 07 $514 −$506 -98%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-07? May 07 $483 −$475 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $183 −$180 -98%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-24? Apr 25 $300 +$787 +262%
Will OGC Nice win on 2026-04-18? Apr 19 $1,210 +$191 +16%
Will Le Havre AC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $340 +$204 +60%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $495 +$216 +44%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $613 +$209 +34%
Will AS Roma win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $350 −$344 -98%
Will Udinese Calcio win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $284 +$216 +76%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $548 −$543 -99%
Will Kocaelispor vs. Göztepe SK end in a draw? Apr 18 $103 +$212 +206%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $395 +$215 +54%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $1,014 +$159 +16%
Will SSC Napoli vs. SS Lazio end in a draw? Apr 18 $70 −$68 -98%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Apr 18 $2 −$1 -31%
Will Hamburger SV win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $690 +$210 +30%
Will FC Lorient win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $890 −$885 -99%
Will Fatih Karagümrük SK win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $218 +$220 +101%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $584 +$202 +35%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $526 −$521 -99%
Will FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. 1. FC Köln end in a draw? Apr 18 $85 +$202 +238%
Will Çaykur Rizespor win on 2026-04-17? Apr 18 $1,965 +$210 +11%
Will FC Augsburg win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $1,300 −$1,295 -100%
Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $545 −$540 -99%
Will FC Internazionale Milano vs. Cagliari Calcio end in a draw? Apr 17 $42 −$41 -98%
Will US Sassuolo Calcio vs. Como 1907 end in a draw? Apr 17 $63 −$62 -98%
Will Racing Club de Lens vs. Toulouse FC end in a draw? Apr 17 $60 −$59 -98%
Will Antalyaspor vs. Konyaspor end in a draw? Apr 17 $85 −$83 -98%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Sporting CP end in a draw? Apr 16 $65 +$224 +344%
Will FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? Apr 15 $50 −$49 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? Apr 14 $60 −$59 -98%
Will Liverpool FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? Apr 14 $67 −$65 -98%
Will OGC Nice vs. Le Havre AC end in a draw? Apr 12 $90 +$214 +238%
Will Göztepe SK vs. Kasımpaşa SK end in a draw? Apr 12 $90 +$215 +238%
Will CA Osasuna vs. Real Betis Balompié end in a draw? Apr 12 $91 +$216 +238%
Will Nottingham Forest FC vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw? Apr 12 $95 +$215 +226%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Athletic Club vs. Villarreal CF end in a draw? Apr 12 $88 −$86 -98%
Will AJ Auxerre vs. FC Nantes end in a draw? Apr 12 $90 +$214 +238%
Will Como 1907 vs. FC Internazionale Milano end in a draw? Apr 12 $95 −$93 -98%
Will Bologna FC 1909 vs. US Lecce end in a draw? Apr 12 $92 −$90 -98%
Will Olympique Lyonnais vs. FC Lorient end in a draw? Apr 12 $67 −$65 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 43¢ $509 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 16¢ $23 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over $1 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 37¢ $830 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 43¢ $483 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 47¢ $357 7d
Will Fatih Karagümrük SK win on 2026-05-09? BUY No 30¢ $31 41d
Will Fatih Karagümrük SK win on 2026-05-09? BUY No 32¢ $694 41d
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-05-07? BUY No 44¢ $508 43d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-07? BUY No 45¢ $514 43d
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-07? BUY No 42¢ $483 43d
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-05-07? BUY No 44¢ $1 43d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? BUY No 40¢ $183 45d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-24? BUY No 27¢ $300 56d
Will AS Roma win on 2026-04-18? BUY Yes 40¢ $350 62d
Will Udinese Calcio win on 2026-04-18? SELL No 100¢ $500 62d
Will OGC Nice win on 2026-04-18? BUY No 86¢ $1,210 62d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-18? BUY No 71¢ $548 62d
Will Kocaelispor vs. Göztepe SK end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $315 62d
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-04-18? SELL No 100¢ $610 62d
Will Le Havre AC win on 2026-04-18? BUY No 62¢ $340 62d
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-04-18? SELL No 100¢ $1,173 62d
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-04-18? BUY No 69¢ $495 62d
Will SSC Napoli vs. SS Lazio end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $70 62d
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2026-04-18? BUY No 74¢ $613 62d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no SELL Yes $1 62d
Will Hamburger SV win on 2026-04-18? SELL No 100¢ $900 62d
Will FC Lorient win on 2026-04-18? BUY No 81¢ $890 62d
Will Fatih Karagümrük SK win on 2026-04-18? SELL No 100¢ $438 62d
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-04-18? SELL No 100¢ $786 62d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $191.86 · official $191.86 (match) · 380 history records