Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:42:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
86 0x86bd…2c98 weather 261 markets active 1h ago coverage 61d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$810 (-7%) realized −$864 · open +$54
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate30%74W / 172L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day15.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$620now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$133
7 days−$326
14 days−$333
30 days−$581
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 90% −$923
other 9% −$189
sports 1% +$64
crypto 0% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-39.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 -28.4% -35.2% 28% 24% -18.7%
≤30d 121 -27.1% -34.0% 34% 26% -15.7%
≤90d 246 -33.6% -39.9% 30% 25% -18.5%
all 246 -33.6% -39.9% 30% 25% -18.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.9% 25% -18.5%
10% -45.7% 21% -26.3%
15% -50.9% 18% -33.4%
20% -55.7% 15% -39.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -39% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$20 · ×1.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$620
Realized−$864
Unrealized+$54
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses74 / 172
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions15
Markets (closed)246 / 261
History coverage61d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day15.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 246 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $80 $84 +$4 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? Yes 68¢ 92¢ $60 $81 +$21 (+35%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 17? Yes 50¢ 56¢ $60 $67 +$7 (+12%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $70 $66 −$4 (-5%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 57¢ $60 $61 +$1 (+1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $40 $42 +$2 (+4%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $40 $38 −$2 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on June 17? Yes 7¢ 21¢ $10 $31 +$21 (+213%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 17? Yes 5¢ 11¢ $6 $13 +$7 (+116%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 17? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 17? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-14%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17? Yes 45¢ 38¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-14%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 17? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-41%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 123 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $51 −$10 -19%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 +$5 +9%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 +$24 +48%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 16 $10 +$11 +110%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $72 +$234 +324%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 16 $51 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 16? Jun 16 $15 −$14 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $97 +$23 +23%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $39 −$10 -24%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $112 −$76 -67%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -96%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 16 $3 −$3 -95%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 15 $50 +$6 +11%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $151 −$150 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $198 −$23 -12%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $133 −$105 -79%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $32 −$22 -68%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $67 +$27 +41%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $31 −$9 -28%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $16 −$16 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $15 +$47 +309%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $48 −$48 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $24 −$19 -78%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $21 −$3 -15%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $20 +$42 +206%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $131 −$2 -2%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $16 −$15 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $41 −$8 -21%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $36 +$39 +107%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $101 +$13 +13%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $201 +$20 +10%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 11 $202 +$44 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $63 −$61 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $172 −$59 -34%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $12 −$11 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $101 −$45 -45%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -95%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju Jun 11 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 11? Jun 11 $43 −$42 -96%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 10 $18 −$17 -96%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 10 $72 +$64 +90%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 10? Jun 10 $81 +$150 +186%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 88¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 66¢ $38 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? SELL Yes 41¢ $60 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? SELL Yes 42¢ $41 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 38¢ $21 2h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY Yes 56¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY Yes 7¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 31¢ $16 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? BUY Yes 54¢ $20 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 5¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 17? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 6h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 17? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 6h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 17? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 6h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 17? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 6h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17? SELL Yes 31¢ $16 6h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 17? BUY Yes 7¢ $6 6h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 7h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 8h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? BUY Yes 46¢ $31 8h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17? BUY Yes 45¢ $31 8h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 17? BUY Yes 45¢ $31 8h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 17? SELL Yes 43¢ $37 8h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 8h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 88¢ $55 15h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $50 16h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 17? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 17h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 17? BUY Yes 34¢ $31 17h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 17h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $12 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $619.60 · official $619.62 (match) · 974 history records