Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T21:55:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

86
0x86bb…fa21
other · 41 markets active 2h ago
1.5score
+$1 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$39
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses18 / 22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)40 / 41
History coverage468d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%
Chart Positions 1 History 40 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 86¢ 86¢ $39 $39 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $35 +$1 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $16 $0 -3%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $2 $0 +13%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 05 $38 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $35 $0 -1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $8 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 04 $38 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 14 $1 $0 +1%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on June 30? Jun 28 $11 +$1 +4%
Will Jean-Marc Aveline be the next pope? May 10 $1 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in his first 100 days? May 06 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Scott Bessent be out as Secretary of the Treasury in Trump's firs Apr 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will TikTok be banned again before May? Apr 18 $2 $0 -23%
Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in April? Apr 16 $10 −$1 -7%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? Apr 16 $12 $0 +0%
Will Scottie Scheffler win The 2025 Masters? Apr 15 $2 −$1 -47%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Apr 14 $12 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Pope Francis in his first 100 days? Apr 13 $14 $0 +0%
Will Rangers win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 12 $14 $0 +1%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 08 $15 $0 +0%
Will Houston win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Apr 06 $15 $0 +1%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before July? Apr 06 $15 $0 +0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? Apr 04 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by March 31? Apr 03 $14 $0 +3%
10-year Treasury yield below 4% before April? Mar 29 $1 $0 -22%
Will Elon tweet 400-424 times March 21-28? Mar 28 $17 +$1 +5%
Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin March 18-24? Mar 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the New York Islanders win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 23 $20 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 45°F or below on March 21? Mar 23 $20 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 400-424 times March 14-21? Mar 20 $23 −$4 -16%
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by Friday? Mar 16 $23 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $91000 and $93000 on Mar 14? Mar 15 $23 $0 +2%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20-1.24ºC in February 20 Mar 12 $15 +$6 +37%
Green Bay vs. Oakland Mar 06 $6 −$4 -71%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 34-35°F on March 3? Mar 03 $21 −$1 -3%
Prairie View A&M vs. Jackson State Mar 03 $22 $0 +0%
Detroit Mercy vs. Northern Kentucky Mar 03 $18 $0 +0%
Middle Tennessee vs. UTEP Mar 03 $10 +$12 +113%
North Dakota vs. South Dakota Mar 01 $14 −$3 -25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 41% $0
other 22% −$3
sports 11% +$1
weather 9% +$5
crypto 7% −$2
politics 6% $0
tech 2% $0
finance 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $39 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $39 9h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $39 9h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 54¢ $3 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 54¢ $32 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 53¢ $35 5d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $8 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $9 6d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 6d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $8 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $8 6d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 78¢ $38 7d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 78¢ $38 7d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $3 7d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $32 7d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $35 7d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $8 7d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $3 7d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $5 7d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $38 7d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $38 7d
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on June 30? SELL No 100¢ $12 349d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1 384d
Will Jean-Marc Aveline be the next pope? BUY No 99¢ $1 406d
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on June 30? BUY No 96¢ $11 420d
Will Scott Bessent be out as Secretary of the Treasury in Trump's firs SELL No 99¢ $10 420d
Will TikTok be banned again before May? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 420d
Will TikTok be banned again before May? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 421d
Will TikTok be banned again before May? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 421d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +4.0% -5.9% 67% 33% -8.8%
≤30d 7 +1.6% -8.1% 29% 14% -9.4%
≤90d 7 +1.6% -8.1% 29% 14% -9.4%
all 40 -5.8% -14.8% 45% 8% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.8% 8% -9.4%
10% -23.0% 5% -18.1%
15% -30.4% 5% -26.0%
20% -37.2% 2% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.77 · official $38.77 (match) · 107 history records