Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T23:10:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

86
0x86b9…5225
other · 10 markets active 1h ago
3.0score
+$3 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$5 · open −$9
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ Small sample
Net worth$28
Realized+$5
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions7
Markets (closed)3 / 10
History coverage17d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit10%
Chart Positions 7 History 3 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$5
14 days+$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Virgil van Dijk score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $8 $0 -1%
Will Scott McTominay score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $10 −$1 -8%
Will Thibaut Courtois record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA Wo Jun 10 $3 +$5 +210%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 57% −$19
other 43% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 78¢ $19 52m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 51¢ $9 55m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 53¢ $10 57m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Spirit 26¢ $4 58m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 35¢ $5 59m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 68¢ $23 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 50¢ $17 1h
Will Virgil van Dijk score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 42¢ $8 1h
Will Scott McTominay score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 58¢ $9 1h
Will Virgil van Dijk score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 40¢ $8 2d
Will Belgium score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 2d
Will Thibaut Courtois record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA Wo SELL Yes 25¢ $8 3d
Will Thibaut Courtois record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA Wo BUY Yes $0 3d
Will Thibaut Courtois record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA Wo BUY Yes $0 3d
Will Thibaut Courtois record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA Wo BUY Yes $0 3d
Will Kylian Mbappé win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 4d
Will Lamine Yamal win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 4d
Will Michael Olise win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 4d
Will Harry Kane win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 4d
Will Thibaut Courtois record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA Wo BUY Yes $2 4d
Will Belgium score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 6d
Will Belgium score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 9d
Will Charles De Ketelaere score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 44¢ $10 11d
Will Scott McTominay score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 11d
Will Belgium score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 12d
Will Belgium score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 15d
Will Belgium score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 17d
Will Belgium score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 17d
Will Belgium score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 17d
Will Belgium score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+51.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +67.2% +51.3% 33% 33% +10.6%
≤30d 3 +67.2% +51.3% 33% 33% +10.6%
≤90d 3 +67.2% +51.3% 33% 33% +10.6%
all 3 +67.2% +51.3% 33% 33% +10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +51.3% 33% +10.6%
10% +36.8% 33% +0.0%
15% +23.6% 33% -9.6%
20% +11.5% 33% -18.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.91 · official $27.95 (match) · 33 history records