Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:34:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
86 0x86b9…6bd8 sports 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 112d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$702 (+17%) realized +$307 · open +$395
Gross ROI / mkt +82% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +64% what you keep after slip
Net edge+64%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%9W / 14L
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$152per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$2,100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$319
7 days+$390
14 days+$390
30 days+$390
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% +$290
politics 38% +$464
sports 14% −$24
crypto 3% +$89
world 1% −$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+64.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +81.6% +64.3% 39% 39% -0.5%
≤30d 23 +81.6% +64.3% 39% 39% -0.5%
≤90d 23 +81.6% +64.3% 39% 39% -0.5%
all 23 +81.6% +64.3% 39% 39% -0.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +64.3% 39% -0.5%
10% +48.6% 39% -10.0%
15% +34.2% 39% -18.7%
20% +21.1% 39% -26.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +82% · $-wt +28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +159% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$107 vs −$41 · ×2.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.68 per $1 lost it wins $1.68
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$2,100
Realized+$307
Unrealized+$395
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses9 / 14
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions4
Markets (closed)23 / 27
History coverage112d
Avg bet$152
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 11¢ 14¢ $1,503 $1,967 +$464 (+31%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 70¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Yes 50¢ 16¢ $100 $31 −$69 (-69%)
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 31¢ 24¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $43 +$148 +344%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $61 −$2 -4%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $202 −$200 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $693 +$307 +44%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $308 +$167 +54%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $92 −$90 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $122 +$89 +73%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $102 −$30 -30%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $52 −$51 -98%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $61 −$19 -31%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $152 +$102 +67%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $72 −$30 -41%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $15 +$36 +238%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $46 −$45 -99%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$4 -73%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$4 -43%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$65 +65%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $41 +$38 +93%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $34 −$33 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$10 +188%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $24 1h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $61 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 50¢ $102 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $43 5h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 5h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 20¢ $56 8h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $202 8h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $61 8h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $993 21h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $493 23h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $200 24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 29h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $92 31h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $303 31h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $52 35h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $122 35h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 20¢ $40 46h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 32¢ $51 47h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 32¢ $2 47h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 32¢ $2 47h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 32¢ $2 47h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 32¢ $2 47h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 32¢ $5 47h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 32¢ $5 47h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 32¢ $2 47h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 45¢ $102 2d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $61 2d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 15¢ $39 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $152 2d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $72 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,100.10 · official $2,098.82 (match) · 59 history records