Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T12:56:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
86 0x86b4…a549 other 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$73 (+5%) realized +$59 · open +$14
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate40%10W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit18%portable
Net worth$1,037now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$107
7 days+$124
14 days+$90
30 days+$61
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% +$92
sports 9% −$1
world 7% −$3
crypto 1% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +46.4% +32.4% 78% 67% +34.1%
≤30d 25 -4.7% -13.7% 40% 36% +4.8%
≤90d 25 -4.7% -13.7% 40% 36% +4.8%
all 25 -4.7% -13.7% 40% 36% +4.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 36% +4.8%
10% -22.0% 32% -5.3%
15% -29.5% 32% -14.4%
20% -36.4% 20% -22.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +16% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -65% → late +51% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$8 · ×2.23 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.49 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$1,037
Realized+$59
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses10 / 15
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions20
Markets (closed)25 / 45
History coverage16d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit18%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 51¢ 52¢ $137 $138 +$1 (+1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 55¢ 52¢ $98 $94 −$4 (-4%)
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 62¢ 75¢ $66 $79 +$13 (+20%)
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 76¢ 85¢ $65 $73 +$8 (+12%)
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 60¢ 70¢ $60 $70 +$10 (+17%)
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $70 $70 −$0 (-1%)
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 67¢ $70 $69 −$1 (-1%)
Will Colombia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 60¢ 62¢ $65 $69 +$3 (+5%)
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 65¢ 69¢ $63 $67 +$4 (+7%)
Will Belgium reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 57¢ 66¢ $54 $62 +$8 (+15%)
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 52¢ 48¢ $67 $61 −$6 (-9%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 18¢ $24 $38 +$14 (+56%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 24¢ 26¢ $29 $32 +$3 (+10%)
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $32 $31 −$1 (-2%)
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $29 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will Iran reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 28¢ 15¢ $36 $19 −$17 (-47%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 90¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+3%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $6 $5 −$1 (-16%)
Will South Korea reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 40¢ $25 $5 −$20 (-81%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 27 $40 +$53 +134%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 27 $19 +$43 +226%
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $66 +$10 +16%
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $6 +$3 +50%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $31 +$43 +140%
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $13 −$12 -98%
Will Colombia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 24 $66 +$1 +2%
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 21 $18 −$17 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1 +$1 +50%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $3 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland? Jun 14 $2 +$8 +550%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 13 $41 −$40 -98%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 1 Scotland? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Morocco? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $8 +$14 +172%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $22 +$10 +44%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $28 −$28 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 52¢ $71 1h
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 80¢ $70 1h
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 68¢ $71 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $19 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $19 4h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $19 13h
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $33 13h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $30 13h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 26¢ $11 13h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 55¢ $26 25h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 23¢ $12 27h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 23¢ $7 27h
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 25¢ $13 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 55¢ $30 2d
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 52¢ $68 3d
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 50¢ $68 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 56¢ $24 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 41¢ $31 3d
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 66¢ $6 4d
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 87¢ $66 4d
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 67¢ $6 5d
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 62¢ $67 5d
Will South Korea reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 40¢ $25 5d
Will Belgium reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 57¢ $55 5d
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 65¢ $58 5d
Will Iran reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 28¢ $37 5d
Will Colombia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 60¢ $66 5d
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 32¢ $18 5d
Will Colombia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 98¢ $66 5d
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 76¢ $66 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,036.95 · official $1,037.34 (match) · 72 history records