Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:50:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
86 0x86b1…c094 sports 567 markets active 1h ago coverage 28d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 27d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (119 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$31,918 (-59%) realized −$31,767 · open −$151
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate32%179W / 374L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day118.6pace
Fees−$872est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$85now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 28d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% −$3,261
weather 14% −$813
crypto 2% −$358
world 0% −$189
politics 0% −$89
culture 0% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (119 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 92 +56.0% +41.1% 38% 33% -1.7%
≤30d 553 -5.8% -14.8% 32% 26% -20.2%
≤90d 553 -5.8% -14.8% 32% 26% -20.2%
all 553 -5.8% -14.8% 32% 26% -20.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover118.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.8% 26% -20.2%
10% ← realistic here -22.9% 24% -27.8%
15% -30.4% 21% -34.8%
20% -37.2% 20% -41.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$136 vs −$77 · ×1.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$85
Realized−$31,767
Unrealized−$151
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses179 / 374
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$872
Open positions14
Markets (closed)553 / 567
History coverage28d ⚠
Avg bet$96
Trades / day118.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 553 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito Petra Marcinko 76¢ 100¢ $23 $30 +$7 (+32%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 16, 2026? No 7¢ 53¢ $1 $11 +$9 (+660%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 17? Yes 23¢ 34¢ $7 $10 +$3 (+50%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? Yes 19¢ 30¢ $6 $9 +$3 (+57%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 17, 2026? No 6¢ 8¢ $5 $6 +$2 (+36%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 29, 2026? No 7¢ 6¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-14%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%? No 5¢ 5¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+4%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 24, 2026? No 7¢ 6¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-7%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 10¢ 1¢ $40 $2 −$38 (-95%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 30, 2026? No 7¢ 7¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? No 28¢ 0¢ $137 $1 −$137 (-99%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 20, 2026? No 6¢ 7¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+17%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 22, 2026? No 6¢ 7¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+17%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 23, 2026? No 6¢ 7¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 269 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $131 +$498 +380%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $40 +$9 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $25 +$4 +16%
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Jun 16 $37 +$3 +8%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $40 +$40 +101%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $70 −$69 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $22 −$22 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $89 +$25 +28%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones Jun 15 $60 −$59 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $481 +$183 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $78 +$12 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $131 +$39 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $164 +$5 +3%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Spirit Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $917 −$3 -0%
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva Jun 15 $129 −$125 -97%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $139 +$418 +301%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $4 +$6 +180%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $31 +$19 +60%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $77 −$77 -100%
Nottingham 2: Luca Nardi vs Remy Bertola Jun 15 $189 +$1,348 +712%
HSBC Championships: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Harry Wendelken Jun 15 $36 −$35 -97%
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - EPL World Series Southea Jun 15 $2 +$38 +2400%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Magdalena Frech vs Shuai Zha Jun 15 $150 −$150 -100%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs G2 Ares - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $7 −$7 -98%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $147 −$146 -100%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Series Jun 15 $10 $0 -3%
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $6 +$74 +1329%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $23 −$23 -97%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $77 −$77 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $18 −$18 -98%
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $35 −$35 -100%
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series S Jun 15 $27 −$17 -63%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $29 +$2,233 +7632%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $235 −$233 -99%
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $11 +$102 +899%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 14 $45 −$44 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $43 −$43 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $31 +$4 +14%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $201 +$49 +24%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $80 +$170 +212%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $34 $0 +1%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $60 −$60 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $200 +$299 +150%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 23¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 19¢ $6 1h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY No 5¢ $1 1h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY No 5¢ $0 2h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY No 5¢ $0 2h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY No 5¢ $4 3h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY No 5¢ $0 3h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY No 5¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 20h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 20h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 20h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 17¢ $4 20h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 20h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 20h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 20h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 20h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 20h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 20h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 20h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 20h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 20h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 17¢ $0 20h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 20h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 17¢ $6 20h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 20h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner BUY Roar Gaming 1¢ $8 20h
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World BUY InterActive Philippines 93¢ $37 20h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 20h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 37¢ $6 20h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 37¢ $12 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $84.97 · official $84.89 (match) · 3500 history records