Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:45:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
86 0x86ad…4c27 world 94 markets active 2h ago coverage 459d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$13 (-0%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate36%33W / 58L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$125per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$54est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$77now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 35% −$2
other 26% +$1
politics 20% −$9
economics 9% $0
sports 9% $0
finance 1% −$3
crypto 0% $0
culture 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.2% -9.3% 33% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 21 +0.8% -8.8% 43% 5% -9.0%
≤90d 41 -2.0% -11.4% 34% 2% -9.5%
all 91 -2.9% -12.1% 36% 1% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 1% -9.7%
10% -20.5% 0% -18.3%
15% -28.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -35.2% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 70% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

459d coverage
Net worth$77
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses33 / 58
Est. fees paid−$54
Open positions3
Markets (closed)91 / 94
History coverage459d
Avg bet$125
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 91 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? No 93¢ 92¢ $76 $76 −$0 (-1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 94¢ 91¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 21 $23 $0 +2%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $107 −$1 -1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $98 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $107 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $37 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $107 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $97 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 11 $106 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $96 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $96 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $69 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 08 $106 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 07 $97 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $9 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $106 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $106 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 03 $77 +$10 +12%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $184 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $88 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 27 $12 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 21 $89 −$3 -3%
Will Alberta join the US? May 21 $187 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 21 $190 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 20 $198 −$1 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 20 $90 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 19 $89 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 18 $92 −$2 -2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 18 $95 −$3 -4%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 18 $92 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 16 $97 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 16 $92 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 15 $1 $0 +7%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 15 $3 $0 +3%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 26 $1,032 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $2,168 +$3 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $32 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 25 $1,014 $0 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 24 $82 −$7 -8%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 23 $5 $0 +7%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Dec 18 $2 $0 -4%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $1 −$1 -55%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Dec 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $13 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $3 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $7 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $16 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $16 −$3 -16%
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 24 $10 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $76 1h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 5¢ $0 30h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 5¢ $12 30h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 5¢ $11 30h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 5¢ $23 30h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $106 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $107 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 35¢ $9 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 35¢ $17 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 35¢ $72 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 35¢ $4 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 35¢ $83 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 35¢ $11 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $107 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $107 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $37 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $22 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $15 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $108 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $107 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $97 8d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $97 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 82¢ $97 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 82¢ $90 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 82¢ $7 8d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 9d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 9d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 9d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 9d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 68¢ $1 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $77.08 · official $75.85 · 347 history records