Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:18:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
86 0x86ac…26de sports 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 71d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge
! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$56 (+19%) realized +$11 · open +$45
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +13% what you keep after slip
Net edge+13%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%11W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$79
14 days+$34
30 days+$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$12
sports 46% +$77
crypto 4% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)+12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +123.5% +102.2% 44% 44% +31.5%
≤30d 21 +70.3% +54.1% 33% 33% +4.6%
≤90d 35 +24.7% +12.9% 31% 31% -5.4%
all 35 +24.7% +12.9% 31% 31% -5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.9% 31% -5.4%
10% +2.1% 29% -14.4%
15% -7.8% 29% -22.7%
20% -16.8% 29% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +25% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -54% → late +99% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$5 · ×2.43 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$45
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses11 / 24
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage71d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 10¢ 100¢ $5 $49 +$45 (+908%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$5 -50%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$1 -13%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$12 +119%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$1 -5%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$7 +74%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$7 +140%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$1 -13%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $12 +$9 +73%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $3 +$56 +1845%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $15 +$17 +114%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 +$5 +97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $56 −$3 -5%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-14? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol end in a draw Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-18? Jun 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 03 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? Jun 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Jun 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TheMongolz (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Playof Apr 14 $5 +$4 +83%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs TheMongolz (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Playoffs Apr 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-04-11? Apr 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Apr 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs BIG (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #20 Playoffs Apr 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs FUT Esports (BO5) - PGL Bucharest Playoffs Apr 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Apr 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Phantom vs Ursa (BO3) - European Pro League Series 6 P Apr 10 $5 +$1 +12%
Counter-Strike: ESC Gaming vs Tricked (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #20 Pl Apr 09 $5 +$5 +112%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-07? Apr 07 $5 +$4 +86%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 7? Apr 07 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Apr 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Apr 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 44¢ $21 40m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $27 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 2h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 22¢ $5 19h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 11¢ $9 19h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 19h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 20h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 20h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 45¢ $10 22h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 14¢ $10 22h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 40¢ $18 22h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 24h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 24h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $12 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 2d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 41¢ $21 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $6 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 3d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 3d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $6 4d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 62¢ $32 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 39¢ $10 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 5d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $15 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 53¢ $53 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.50 · official $49.50 (match) · 87 history records