Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T18:06:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

86
0x86aa…0d32
sports · 384 markets active 0h ago
2.5score
−$2,701 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2,807 · open +$106
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$832
Realized−$2,807
Unrealized+$106
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses290 / 91
Whale WR (big bets)85%
Est. fees paid−$363
Open positions3
Markets (closed)381 / 384
History coverage142d
Avg bet$215
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%
Chart Positions 3 History 381 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$992
7 days−$1,289
14 days−$2,148
30 days−$2,080
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Taylor Fritz 65¢ 100¢ $270 $411 +$141 (+52%)
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Aurora Gaming 89¢ 81¢ $356 $326 −$30 (-8%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Spirit 70¢ 66¢ $100 $95 −$5 (-5%)
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H Moneyline Spurs 87¢ 0¢ $690 $0 −$690 (-100%)
New York Yankees vs. New York Mets New York Yankees 54¢ 0¢ $54 $0 −$54 (-100%)
Hamburg European Open: Ugo Humbert vs Karen Khachanov Karen Khachanov 67¢ 0¢ $68 $0 −$68 (-100%)
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Luciano Darderi vs Alexander Zverev Alexander Zverev 86¢ 0¢ $400 $0 −$400 (-100%)
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers Texas Rangers 57¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Anna Kalinskaya vs Jelena Ostapenko Anna Kalinskaya 38¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals San Diego Padres 53¢ 0¢ $300 $0 −$300 (-100%)
Hamburg European Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Ben Shelton Ben Shelton 92¢ 0¢ $388 $0 −$388 (-100%)
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Coco Gauff vs Elina Svitolina Coco Gauff 73¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Libema Open: Emma Navarro vs Caty McNally Emma Navarro 80¢ 0¢ $250 $0 −$250 (-100%)
Hamburg European Open: Alex de Minaur vs Tommy Paul Alex de Minaur 88¢ 0¢ $579 $0 −$579 (-100%)
Geneva Open: Casper Ruud vs Mariano Navone Casper Ruud 77¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 11.5 No 75¢ 0¢ $184 $0 −$184 (-100%)
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Shuai Zhang vs Emma Navarro Shuai Zhang 79¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Paris: Anastasia Zakharova vs Katie Boulter Katie Boulter 63¢ 0¢ $157 $0 −$157 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Yes 38¢ 0¢ $39 $0 −$39 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Francisco Comesana vs Luciano Darderi Luciano Darderi 70¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Set 1 Winner: Lehecka vs Duckworth Lehecka 73¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Roman Safiullin Roman Safiullin 79¢ 0¢ $498 $0 −$498 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Martin Landaluce vs Vit Kopriva Vit Kopriva 91¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays Tampa Bay Rays 73¢ 0¢ $73 $0 −$73 (-100%)
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Elina Svitolina vs Elena Rybakina Elena Rybakina 89¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $192 +$69 +36%
Counter-Strike: XI Esport vs MASQ (BO1) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group B Jun 12 $201 −$190 -95%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $443 +$49 +11%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $51 +$41 +81%
Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs Bonzi (+1.5) Jun 12 $60 +$14 +23%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $100 +$11 +11%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $41 +$53 +129%
Map Handicap: VP (-1.5) vs INOX Division (+1.5) Jun 12 $41 +$9 +22%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 12 $151 +$46 +30%
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever Jun 12 $100 +$6 +6%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $100 +$9 +9%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $101 +$36 +36%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $45 +$12 +26%
Set 1 Winner: Shimabukuro vs Kyrgios Jun 11 $30 +$7 +24%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 11 $563 −$560 -99%
Set Handicap: Tiafoe (-1.5) vs Hijikata (+1.5) Jun 11 $210 +$20 +10%
Libema Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Elise Mertens Jun 11 $202 +$131 +65%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $101 −$100 -99%
Set 1 Winner: Hijikata vs Tiafoe Jun 11 $50 +$5 +10%
Set 1 Winner: Lehecka vs Duckworth Jun 11 $101 −$100 -99%
Set 2 Winner: Potapova vs Sonmez Jun 11 $132 −$32 -24%
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 11.5 Jun 11 $185 −$184 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $442 −$439 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $202 +$69 +34%
Libema Open: Martin Damm vs Alex de Minaur Jun 10 $5 $0 +3%
Set 1 Winner: Damm vs Minaur Jun 10 $131 +$28 +21%
Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexander Bublik Jun 10 $10 −$10 -97%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs INOX Division (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Jun 10 $51 −$50 -98%
HSBC Championships: Laura Siegemund vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 10 $371 +$25 +7%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $136 +$117 +86%
Stuttgart Open: Nick Kyrgios vs Corentin Moutet Jun 09 $51 +$77 +152%
Cattolica: Federico Bondioli vs Carlo Alberto Caniato Jun 09 $211 −$50 -24%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $72 −$71 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 09 $101 +$50 +50%
Set 1 Winner: Kyrgios vs Moutet Jun 09 $145 +$21 +14%
Libema Open: Emma Navarro vs Caty McNally Jun 09 $251 −$250 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) Jun 09 $241 +$52 +22%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $201 +$40 +20%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 09 $102 +$107 +105%
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H Moneyline Jun 09 $693 −$690 -100%
Will Oscar Piastri finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Pr Jun 07 $6 +$1 +24%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $51 +$98 +192%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $755 +$202 +27%
Will Isack Hadjar finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Pri Jun 07 $202 +$3 +1%
Will Pierre Gasly finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Pri Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Stuttgart Open, Qualification: Roman Safiullin vs Alexis Galarneau Jun 07 $543 +$133 +24%
Cobolli vs. Zverev: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 07 $110 −$110 -100%
Birmingham: Alexandra Eala vs Rebeka Masarova Jun 06 $30 +$2 +7%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $7 +$7 +97%
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals May 30 $304 −$300 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 93% −$2,043
other 7% −$671
world 0% +$11
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 70¢ $101 5m
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) BUY Aurora Gaming 89¢ $178 11m
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) BUY Aurora Gaming 89¢ $125 12m
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) BUY Aurora Gaming 89¢ $39 12m
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) BUY Aurora Gaming 89¢ $14 12m
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 54¢ $101 1h
Counter-Strike: XI Esport vs MASQ (BO1) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group B SELL XI Esport 4¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: XI Esport vs MASQ (BO1) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group B SELL XI Esport 5¢ $6 1h
Counter-Strike: XI Esport vs MASQ (BO1) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group B BUY XI Esport 89¢ $100 1h
Counter-Strike: XI Esport vs MASQ (BO1) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group B BUY XI Esport 85¢ $100 1h
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 73¢ $101 2h
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 77¢ $70 2h
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron BUY Ben Shelton 74¢ $91 4h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Monte 80¢ $94 4h
Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs Bonzi (+1.5) BUY Minaur 81¢ $60 4h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY Monte 77¢ $342 4h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner SELL Monte 38¢ $50 4h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY Monte 74¢ $101 5h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 55¢ $51 5h
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner BUY Virtus.pro 90¢ $100 5h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 34¢ $41 6h
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria BUY Elena Rybakina 61¢ $51 7h
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria BUY Elena Rybakina 87¢ $100 7h
Map Handicap: VP (-1.5) vs INOX Division (+1.5) BUY Virtus.pro 41¢ $41 12h
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever BUY Indiana Fever 94¢ $100 16h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 92¢ $100 17h
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron BUY Ben Shelton 72¢ $101 25h
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 73¢ $101 27h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Vitality 79¢ $45 28h
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios BUY Nick Kyrgios 81¢ $261 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 -0.1% -9.6% 69% 53% -23.8%
≤30d 260 -3.0% -12.3% 76% 52% -12.6%
≤90d 379 -3.5% -12.7% 76% 52% -12.8%
all 381 -3.7% -12.9% 76% 52% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 52% -12.7%
10% -21.2% 28% -21.1%
15% -28.8% 15% -28.7%
20% -35.8% 8% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $832.07 · official $832.11 (match) · 993 history records