Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T00:54:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

86
0x86a6…1b3e
sports · 633 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$1,665 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,427 · open −$188
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2,413
Realized−$1,427
Unrealized−$188
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses272 / 350
Whale WR (big bets)41%
Est. fees paid−$886
Open positions10
Markets (closed)622 / 633
History coverage112d
Avg bet$280
Trades / day19.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%
Chart Positions 10 History 622 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,246
7 days+$1,145
14 days+$797
30 days+$2,118
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $888 $883 −$5 (-1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 43¢ 48¢ $251 $283 +$32 (+13%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 20¢ 25¢ $208 $263 +$55 (+26%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $255 $224 −$31 (-12%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $207 $212 +$4 (+2%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $157 $150 −$8 (-5%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $164 $145 −$19 (-12%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $120 $129 +$9 (+8%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $127 $126 −$1 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $224 $0 −$224 (-100%)
FC Midtjylland vs. Viborg FF: O/U 4.5 Under 48¢ 0¢ $123 $0 −$123 (-100%)
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will Racing Club win on 2026-04-29? Yes 52¢ 0¢ $133 $0 −$133 (-100%)
Will Hull City AFC vs. Middlesbrough FC end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 0¢ $119 $0 −$119 (-100%)
Will Chelsea FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? Yes 49¢ 0¢ $62 $0 −$62 (-100%)
1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: Both Teams to Score No 52¢ 0¢ $103 $0 −$103 (-100%)
Everton FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 3.5 Under 42¢ 0¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
Kawasaki Frontale vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima: Draw at halftime? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
UD Almería vs. CD Castellón: Draw at halftime? Yes 51¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 0 - 1 Arsenal FC? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $66 $0 −$66 (-100%)
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: Draw at halftime? Yes 83¢ 0¢ $180 $0 −$180 (-100%)
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid end in a draw? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $129 $0 −$129 (-100%)
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 1.5 Under 26¢ 0¢ $53 $0 −$53 (-100%)
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? No 0¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Up 43¢ 0¢ $225 $0 −$225 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $164 +$143 +87%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $128 +$204 +160%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $108 +$39 +36%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $190 −$25 -13%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? Jun 13 $102 +$88 +87%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $861 −$45 -5%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $86 −$15 -18%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $463 +$509 +110%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $250 +$116 +46%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $119 −$18 -15%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $50 −$49 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $151 +$89 +59%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? Jun 12 $139 −$137 -98%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $1,511 +$346 +23%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 11 $1,121 −$171 -15%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $385 +$121 +31%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 11 $2,512 −$490 -20%
Spread: Knicks (-3.5) Jun 11 $47 −$31 -66%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $335 +$353 +105%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 11 $163 +$124 +76%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Rebounds O/U 11.5 Jun 10 $194 −$32 -16%
Will Portugal vs. Nigeria end in a draw? Jun 10 $115 −$91 -80%
Málaga CF vs. UD Las Palmas: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $89 +$53 +60%
Málaga CF vs. UD Las Palmas: Draw at halftime? Jun 10 $91 −$90 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $845 +$156 +18%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 10 $248 +$148 +60%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $264 +$246 +93%
Will UD Almería vs. CD Castellón end in a draw? Jun 09 $369 −$353 -96%
UD Almería vs. CD Castellón: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $177 −$174 -98%
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Jun 09 $1,010 −$53 -5%
UD Almería vs. CD Castellón: Draw at halftime? Jun 09 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Chile win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $200 +$79 +39%
Cambodia vs. Hong Kong SAR: Draw at halftime? Jun 09 $108 +$64 +59%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $218 +$239 +109%
Will Niger vs. Mauritania end in a draw? Jun 08 $113 +$33 +29%
Will Wydad Athletic Club win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $100 +$20 +20%
Wydad Athletic Club vs. OC Safi: O/U 1.5 Jun 08 $74 +$39 +53%
Will Wydad Athletic Club vs. OC Safi end in a draw? Jun 08 $62 −$39 -62%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: Draw at halftime? Jun 08 $131 −$125 -96%
Wydad Athletic Club vs. OC Safi: Draw at halftime? Jun 08 $289 +$105 +36%
Wydad Athletic Club vs. OC Safi: O/U 0.5 Jun 08 $56 −$55 -98%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? Jun 08 $152 −$63 -41%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 07 $133 −$131 -99%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 07 $130 −$47 -36%
Jordan vs. Colombia: Draw at halftime? Jun 07 $114 −$112 -98%
Ecuador vs. Guatemala: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $315 +$54 +17%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $142 −$53 -37%
Will Greece win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $570 +$191 +34%
Greece vs. Italy: Draw at halftime? Jun 07 $132 −$88 -67%
Morocco vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 07 $320 +$28 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 35% +$843
sports 33% −$796
other 28% −$834
crypto 2% −$763
politics 0% −$65
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 95¢ $262 50m
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 95¢ $5 50m
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 95¢ $1 50m
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 95¢ $39 50m
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 85¢ $332 59m
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 95¢ $106 1h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 95¢ $40 1h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 95¢ $2 1h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $164 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $165 1h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 69¢ $108 1h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 32¢ $128 1h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 95¢ $159 2h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 95¢ $20 2h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 95¢ $10 2h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 95¢ $1 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 31¢ $229 2h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $243 2h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 50¢ $102 2h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 90¢ $70 5h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $86 5h
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 29¢ $253 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 23¢ $47 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 23¢ $0 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 23¢ $159 7h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $91 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $105 10h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $972 20h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $79 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 +34.3% +21.5% 50% 48% -3.5%
≤30d 244 +19.3% +7.9% 54% 50% -6.2%
≤90d 527 -2.0% -11.4% 41% 38% -13.3%
all 622 +2.7% -7.0% 44% 40% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover19.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.0% 40% -9.0%
10% -15.9% 36% -17.7%
15% -24.1% 31% -25.7%
20% -31.5% 24% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,412.98 · official $2,413.29 (match) · 2377 history records