Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T00:47:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
86 0x86a6…d128 crypto 768 markets active 1h ago coverage 50d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$66 (-2%) realized −$66 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate58%449W / 319L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day20.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days−$24
14 days−$41
30 days−$73
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% −$174
other 12% +$17
sports 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 142 -3.1% -12.3% 72% 61% -14.3%
≤30d 467 -4.3% -13.4% 61% 57% -13.5%
≤90d 768 -2.4% -11.7% 58% 55% -13.5%
all 768 -2.4% -11.7% 58% 55% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.7% 55% -13.5%
10% ← realistic here -20.2% 44% -21.8%
15% -27.9% 35% -29.4%
20% -34.9% 24% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$66
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses449 / 319
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)768 / 768
History coverage50d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day20.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 768 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$10 +192%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +40%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +47%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +34%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +44%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +40%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +47%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +19%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +40%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +29%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +38%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +26%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +46%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +38%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +26%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$6 +181%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +18%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +20%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +33%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +31%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +15%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +16%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +14%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +15%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +12%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +19%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $3 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $4 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $3 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $4 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $2 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $4 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $3 2h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $3 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $2 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $2 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $2 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $3 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $3 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $2 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $3 5h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $3 5h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 5h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $4 5h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $3 5h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $3 6h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 6h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $3 6h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $3 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.20 · official $0.00 (match) · 2245 history records