Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T21:29:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

86
0x86a4…4fb0
crypto · 26 markets active 0h ago
0.5score
+$23 +51%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$30 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1
Realized−$30
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses2 / 22
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)24 / 26
History coverage270d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%
Chart Positions 2 History 24 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Yes 5¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+1788%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-96%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $120,000 and $122,000 on September 17? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,700 on September 17? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Up 43¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $104,000 on September 17? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Down 13¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Down 7¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - September 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Down 13¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Down 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $122,000 on September 17? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $122,000 on September 17? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Trump impose more sanctions on Russia by September 30? No 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump impose more sanctions on Russia by September 30? Sep 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $104,000 on September 17? Sep 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $120,000 and $122,000 on Septembe Sep 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $122,000 on September 17? Sep 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,700 on September 17? Sep 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $122,000 on September 17? Sep 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - September 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Sep 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Sep 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Sep 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 16 $1 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 16 $1 $0 +17%
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? Sep 16 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Sep 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Sep 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - September 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Sep 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Sep 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Sep 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Sep 16 $2 +$3 +144%
Ethereum Up or Down - September 16, 12PM ET Sep 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Sep 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Athletic Bilbao win on 2025-09-16? Sep 16 $3 $0 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Sep 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Sep 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 73% −$28
other 9% −$1
economics 9% −$1
sports 7% +$1
world 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $56 20m
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 1h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Trump impose more sanctions on Russia by September 30? BUY No 0¢ $1 270d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $104,000 on September 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 270d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $120,000 and $122,000 on Septembe BUY Yes 4¢ $1 270d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $122,000 on September 17? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 270d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,700 on September 17? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 270d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $122,000 on September 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 270d
Ethereum Up or Down - September 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 270d
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 270d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? SELL No 5¢ $1 270d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 270d
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 270d
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $2 270d
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 270d
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 270d
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $4 270d
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 270d
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 270d
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 270d
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 270d
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 270d
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 270d
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 270d
Ethereum Up or Down - September 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 270d
Ethereum Up or Down - September 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 270d
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 270d
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 16, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 270d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-75.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 24 -73.1% -75.7% 8% 8% -76.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -75.7% 8% -76.5%
10% -78.0% 4% -78.7%
15% -80.1% 4% -80.8%
20% -82.1% 4% -82.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.70 · official $0.04 (match) · 52 history records