Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T16:21:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
86 0x86a3…20ac other 53 markets active 2h ago coverage 462d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+1%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate48%25W / 27L
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 57% +$4
other 21% $0
politics 7% +$1
economics 6% +$1
sports 4% $0
crypto 3% $0
culture 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.5% -9.1% 44% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 13 +7.7% -2.5% 54% 15% -8.7%
≤90d 13 +7.7% -2.5% 54% 15% -8.7%
all 52 +3.3% -6.5% 48% 10% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.5% 10% -8.8%
10% -15.5% 8% -17.6%
15% -23.6% 4% -25.5%
20% -31.1% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.63 per $1 lost it wins $4.63
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

462d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses25 / 27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)52 / 53
History coverage462d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 91¢ 92¢ $41 $41 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $8 $0 -1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $40 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 18 $76 +$1 +1%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $36 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $37 $0 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $7 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $35 +$1 +4%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $73 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $29 $0 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 10 $14 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $35 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 08 $38 $0 +1%
Will Nuno Mendes win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 12 $3 $0 -1%
Will Ali Khamenei be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 12 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 National League Championshi Jul 12 $12 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Jul 12 $13 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Jul 09 $1 $0 +31%
Will Elon tweet 210–224 times July 4–11? Jul 09 $2 −$1 -28%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Jul 09 $18 $0 +0%
Will Eduardo del Castillo win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jul 08 $9 $0 +1%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 08 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 08 $10 $0 -1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1700 in July? Jul 08 $3 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 08 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 08 $24 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jul 08 $22 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jul 08 $13 $0 +1%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 07 $13 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 07 $1 $0 +3%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Jul 07 $2 $0 +0%
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between 0% and -1%? Jul 07 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 06 $13 $0 +0%
Will SPD win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jul 06 $11 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Jul 06 $2 $0 +18%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Jul 06 $13 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 04 $12 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jul 04 $12 $0 +0%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Jul 03 $2 +$1 +30%
Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 11% and 12% in Jul 03 $12 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 100% and 150% on August Jul 03 $2 $0 +0%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 27 $10 +$1 +7%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $1 $0 +3%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? May 20 $2 $0 +3%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? May 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will Bayern Munich win the Bundesliga? Apr 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will Marcel Ciolacu advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runo Apr 16 $10 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 28 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 26 $13 $0 -0%
Wofford vs. Tennessee Mar 22 $12 +$1 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 91¢ $41 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 14h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 17h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 26h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 29h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $40 39h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $40 41h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 47¢ $8 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 47¢ $27 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 47¢ $1 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 46¢ $33 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 46¢ $3 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $6 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $6 2d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 98¢ $36 4d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $24 4d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $13 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $9 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $28 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $37 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $7 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $7 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 85¢ $37 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 82¢ $35 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 56¢ $39 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 56¢ $39 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $13 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $27 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $39 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 38¢ $24 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.94 · official $41.40 (match) · 230 history records