Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:44:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

86 0x86a1…63ae crypto 5 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$2 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -66% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -71% what you keep after slip

Net edge-71%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate33%1W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$54per market

Trades / day6.0pace

Kalshi-fit60%portable

Net worth$114now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-69.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	-66.2%	-69.4%	33%	0%	-38.8%
≤30d	3	-66.2%	-69.4%	33%	0%	-38.8%
≤90d	3	-66.2%	-69.4%	33%	0%	-38.8%
all	3	-66.2%	-69.4%	33%	0%	-38.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover6.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-69.4%	0%	-38.8%
10%	-72.3%	0%	-44.7%
15%	-75.0%	0%	-50.0%
20%	-77.5%	0%	-54.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -32% too few recent

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -66% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$1 vs −$25 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.03 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$114

Realized+$2

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)33%

Wins / losses1 / 2

Open positions2

Markets (closed)3 / 5

History coverage1d

Avg bet$54

Trades / day6.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	73¢	72¢	$100	$99	−$1 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	18¢	18¢	$15	$15	−$0 (-0%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Jun 19	$26	−$25	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Jun 19	$25	−$25	-99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Jun 19	$100	+$1	+1%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	18¢	$15	24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	BUY Down	35¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	BUY Up	80¢	$25	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	BUY Up	98¢	$100	5h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	73¢	$100	8h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	73¢	$1	8h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $114.27 · official $114.27 (match) · 7 history records