Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T08:18:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
86 0x86a0…76e9 crypto 293 markets active 0h ago coverage 118d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 118d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,684 (-6%) realized −$2,684 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate68%200W / 93L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$166per market
Trades / day26.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 118d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$642
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -8.6% -17.3% 46% 23% -13.1%
≤30d 13 -8.6% -17.3% 46% 23% -13.1%
≤90d 13 -8.6% -17.3% 46% 23% -13.1%
all 293 -6.4% -15.4% 68% 6% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.4% 6% -10.7%
10% ← realistic here -23.5% 3% -19.3%
15% -30.9% 1% -27.1%
20% -37.6% 1% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
9.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$32 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,684
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses200 / 93
Open positions0
Markets (closed)293 / 293
History coverage118d ⚠
Avg bet$166
Trades / day26.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 293 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 27 $32 +$8 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 27 $36 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 27 $36 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 23 $23 −$2 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 23 $18 −$5 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 23 $22 −$3 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 23 $18 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 23 $27 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 23 $18 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 23 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 23 $21 +$19 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 21 $16 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 21 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Mar 11 $115 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Mar 11 $53 −$22 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Mar 11 $52 −$28 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Mar 11 $115 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Mar 11 $467 +$16 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Mar 11 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Mar 11 $115 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Mar 11 $115 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Mar 11 $115 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Mar 11 $115 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Mar 11 $54 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Mar 11 $11 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Mar 11 $115 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Mar 11 $156 −$36 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Mar 11 $115 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Mar 11 $115 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Mar 11 $115 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Mar 11 $115 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Mar 11 $113 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Mar 11 $115 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Mar 11 $113 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Mar 11 $115 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Mar 11 $115 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Mar 10 $68 −$17 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Mar 10 $115 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Mar 10 $55 −$16 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Mar 10 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Mar 07 $407 −$382 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Mar 07 $115 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Mar 07 $115 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Mar 07 $115 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Mar 07 $115 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Mar 07 $132 −$12 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Mar 07 $46 −$29 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Mar 07 $451 +$6 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Mar 07 $115 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Mar 07 $55 −$20 -37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $32 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $36 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $8 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $12 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET SELL Up 33¢ $13 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $9 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $19 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $15 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET SELL Up 46¢ $18 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $18 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 69¢ $27 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $27 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $7 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $7 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 47¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 47¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 47¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 47¢ $7 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records