Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T19:28:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
86 0x869e…6e5b other 118 markets active 2h ago coverage 117d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate10%12W / 104L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$186per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$65now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$35
7 days+$35
14 days+$35
30 days+$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% +$24
politics 36% −$10
sports 7% −$23
crypto 5% −$1
economics 2% −$1
world 1% $0
tech 1% $0
finance 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +45.3% +31.4% 40% 40% +13.3%
≤30d 12 +18.8% +7.5% 17% 17% -5.8%
≤90d 98 -0.8% -10.3% 7% 5% -9.5%
all 116 -1.9% -11.2% 10% 9% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 9% -9.6%
10% -19.7% 5% -18.2%
15% -27.5% 3% -26.1%
20% -34.6% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -8% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$1 · ×7.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$65
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses12 / 104
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)116 / 118
History coverage117d
Avg bet$186
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 116 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $37 $37 −$0 (-0%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $45 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 23 $22 $0 -0%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $23 +$3 +11%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $15 +$33 +216%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 21 $61 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $18 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $25 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $30 $0 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $21 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $24 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $395 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 30 $34 $0 -0%
Will Alejandro Davidovich Fokina win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 25 $165 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $139 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $686 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 22 $148 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $144 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 20 $886 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 19 $141 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $335 −$1 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $195 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $274 $0 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 15 $160 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $158 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 12 $198 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $161 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $519 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $39 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 09 $317 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 06 $119 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $126 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $330 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $484 −$1 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $128 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $338 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $154 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $141 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $147 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $208 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $190 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $204 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $183 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $188 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Apr 19 $211 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $173 $0 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $185 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $146 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $156 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $194 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $193 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 15 $210 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $45 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $28 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? BUY No 99¢ $37 1h
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $22 1h
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $22 44h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 31¢ $15 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 90¢ $23 2d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $32 2d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $32 2d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $18 2d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $18 3d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $25 8d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $25 9d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $30 11d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $30 12d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $21 12d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $21 13d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $29 13d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $29 16d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $24 20d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $24 20d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $22 22d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $22 23d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $34 23d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $34 24d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $136 26d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $136 28d
Will Alejandro Davidovich Fokina win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 100¢ $165 29d
Will Alejandro Davidovich Fokina win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 100¢ $165 30d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $139 30d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $139 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $64.95 · official $64.95 (match) · 336 history records