Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:32:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
86 0x869b…a294 world 69 markets active 2h ago coverage 530d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +15% what you keep after slip
Net edge+15%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate48%32W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$4
14 days+$1
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% −$2
other 21% +$4
politics 19% $0
economics 11% $0
sports 10% −$6
weather 1% +$1
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)+15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +0.9% -8.7% 70% 0% -8.7%
≤30d 20 -1.8% -11.2% 65% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 54 -1.8% -11.2% 46% 0% -9.6%
all 67 +27.1% +15.0% 48% 9% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +15.0% 9% -10.0%
10% +4.0% 7% -18.6%
15% -6.0% 6% -26.5%
20% -15.2% 1% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 46% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +58% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

530d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses32 / 35
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)67 / 69
History coverage530d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? No 84¢ 84¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $45 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $36 $0 +1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $25 $0 +2%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 17 $14 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $39 +$1 +2%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $18 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $38 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $133 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $60 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $37 +$1 +4%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $10 −$5 -50%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $44 +$1 +1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $39 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 08 $27 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $52 $0 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $48 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $2 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $18 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $44 −$1 -2%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $15 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 14 $3 $0 -6%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $79 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $4 $0 -2%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $3 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $82 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $18 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $44 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $2 $0 +6%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $43 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 22 $43 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $40 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 22 $40 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 21 $7 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 20 $12 −$2 -15%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 20 $46 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $64 $0 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 13 $46 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 12 $46 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 10 $101 +$1 +1%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $3 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 09 $42 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 08 $53 $0 +0%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 06 $30 $0 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 04 $47 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 04 $46 $0 +0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 01 $2 $0 +0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 01 $46 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Mar 30 $42 $0 -1%
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? Mar 29 $41 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $13 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $27 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $44 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $44 4h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $12 19h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $24 19h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $36 23h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 34h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 36h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 54¢ $12 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 54¢ $14 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $13 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $13 2d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes $4 2d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY Yes $4 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 63¢ $40 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 62¢ $39 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $0 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $3 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $1 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $4 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $5 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $5 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $13 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $20 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $38 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $13 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $13 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.19 · official $40.08 (match) · 270 history records