Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:08:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
86 0x869b…543b crypto 57 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$16 (-6%) realized −$126 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -55% what you keep after slip
Net edge-55%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate19%10W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day69.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$126
7 days−$126
14 days−$126
30 days−$126
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$136
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-47.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 -42.1% -47.6% 19% 19% -57.8%
≤30d 53 -42.1% -47.6% 19% 19% -57.8%
≤90d 53 -42.1% -47.6% 19% 19% -57.8%
all 53 -42.1% -47.6% 19% 19% -57.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover69.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -47.6% 19% -57.8%
10% ← realistic here -52.6% 19% -61.8%
15% -57.2% 17% -65.5%
20% -61.4% 13% -68.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -53% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -42% · $-wt -53% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -48.46649761143674% → late -35.9803456364958% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$5 · ×1.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized−$126
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses10 / 43
Open positions4
Markets (closed)53 / 57
History coverage1d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day69.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Down 0¢ 16¢ $0 $7 +$7 (+0%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Down 0¢ 26¢ $0 $5 +$5 (+0%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4PM ET Down 17¢ 1¢ $17 $1 −$16 (-97%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3PM ET Up 20¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Down 18¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Down 21¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Up 31¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Down 34¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Down 15¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2PM ET Down 22¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Down 25¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Up 22¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Up 18¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Up 19¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Up 23¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Down 7¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Down 9¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Down 10¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Down 10¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Down 12¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3PM ET Down 4¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Up 9¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Up 18¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Down 22¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Down 24¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$11 +117%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$13 +662%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$23 +453%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$4 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$10 -93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $13 −$12 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$9 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$9 -93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$10 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$8 +423%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $6 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $6 4m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $2 14m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $2 16m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $20 17m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $9 19m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $3 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $5 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $5 34m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $2 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Down 25¢ $10 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $5 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $18 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $2 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $15 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Up 79¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.06 · official $15.54 · 73 history records