Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T10:53:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

86
0x869b…e095
sports · 230 markets active 0h ago
2.0score
+$23 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$18 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$72
Realized+$18
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses101 / 105
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions24
Markets (closed)206 / 230
History coverage517d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%
Chart Positions 24 History 206 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$31
7 days+$32
14 days+$2
30 days+$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Team Heretics 47¢ 50¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+5%)
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? No 76¢ 76¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Ilia Topuria 80¢ 80¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-0%)
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? No 47¢ 44¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-5%)
Will Japan finish second in Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 32¢ 30¢ $6 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Counter-Strike: Rebels Gaming vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Group Stage Rune Eaters 54¢ 50¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Will Lewis Hamilton finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Yes 59¢ 57¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-3%)
Map Handicap: LEV (-1.5) vs Team Heretics (+1.5) Team Heretics 73¢ 72¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Will Charles Leclerc finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? No 93¢ 90¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-3%)
KBO: LG Twins vs. NC Dinos LG Twins 51¢ 50¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Lotte Giants Hanwha Eagles 53¢ 53¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 46¢ 44¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? No 10¢ 10¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
Will Kimi Antonelli achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Yes 35¢ 39¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+11%)
Will Isack Hadjar finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? No 98¢ 97¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
1st 5 Innings Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5) San Diego Padres 72¢ 70¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
1st 5 Innings Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5) Milwaukee Brewers 74¢ 84¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+13%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House No 56¢ 57¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? No 96¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? No 94¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? No 97¢ 97¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Luis Arraez hit the most triples in the 2026 MLB regular season? No 98¢ 97¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will South Korea be the highest-scoring team in Group A during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 65¢ 62¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Gen.G 42¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 14 $10 −$1 -9%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $2 +$2 +90%
Australia to win the second half? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $2 +$10 +393%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 $0 +20%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$7 +129%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $6 $0 +3%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $6 +$24 +388%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $5 +$2 +31%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $3 +$12 +365%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $10 −$5 -50%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $6 +$3 +55%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 13 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO? Jun 13 $3 $0 -4%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1 $0 +34%
Will Oscar Piastri get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Pr Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $5 +$10 +197%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $4 +$1 +42%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -99%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 170.5 Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $6 +$4 +67%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $5 +$2 +37%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $5 $0 -0%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +10%
Lyon: Alejandro Moro Canas vs Kimmer Coppejans Jun 10 $1 +$1 +64%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Gauthier Onclin Jun 10 $6 −$5 -98%
Iraq vs. Venezuela: O/U 5.5 Jun 10 $1 $0 +2%
Will Venezuela win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Will New York Yankees win the 2026 American League Championship Series Jun 10 $3 $0 -5%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 the Memorial Tournament presented by Wo Jun 07 $1 $0 +4%
Will Charles Leclerc achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Monaco Gra Jun 07 $1 $0 +14%
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $2 $0 +2%
Will Kimi Antonelli achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Monaco Gran Jun 07 $2 +$3 +177%
Will Max Verstappen finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand P Jun 07 $3 +$6 +232%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? Jun 07 $6 +$2 +30%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? Jun 07 $4 +$1 +36%
Valorant: FULL SENSE vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group S Jun 07 $5 +$7 +134%
Will Scottie Scheffler finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 the Memorial To Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 83% −$59
other 11% +$80
crypto 5% $0
politics 1% $0
culture 0% −$5
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 10¢ $2 3m
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 79¢ $4 12m
Will Lewis Hamilton finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gran BUY Yes 59¢ $3 23m
Will Lewis Hamilton finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gran BUY Yes 59¢ $1 59m
1st 5 Innings Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5) BUY San Diego Padres 72¢ $1 1h
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? SELL No 28¢ $1 1h
1st 5 Innings Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5) BUY San Diego Padres 72¢ $0 1h
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? SELL No 29¢ $1 1h
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? SELL No 29¢ $1 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 42¢ $1 1h
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? SELL No 29¢ $1 1h
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY No 46¢ $2 3h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 97¢ $1 3h
Will Kimi Antonelli achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Catalunya G BUY Yes 37¢ $1 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $4 3h
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? BUY No 31¢ $1 5h
Will Isack Hadjar finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand BUY No 98¢ $1 5h
Australia to win the second half? BUY No 33¢ $2 5h
Australia to win the second half? BUY No 71¢ $2 5h
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? BUY No 30¢ $1 5h
Will Kimi Antonelli achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Catalunya G BUY Yes 34¢ $1 6h
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? BUY No 31¢ $1 7h
Will Charles Leclerc finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gra BUY No 93¢ $4 7h
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Team Heretics 48¢ $1 7h
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? BUY No 31¢ $1 8h
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Team Heretics 47¢ $2 8h
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Team Heretics 47¢ $2 8h
Map Handicap: LEV (-1.5) vs Team Heretics (+1.5) BUY Team Heretics 73¢ $4 8h
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? BUY No 31¢ $1 8h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Houston Astros 48¢ $1 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 +11.8% +1.1% 52% 40% +6.7%
≤30d 178 +0.6% -9.0% 49% 43% -4.5%
≤90d 183 +1.4% -8.2% 50% 44% -4.7%
all 206 -0.0% -9.6% 49% 39% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 39% -8.7%
10% -18.2% 38% -17.4%
15% -26.1% 31% -25.4%
20% -33.4% 24% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $72.47 · official $72.48 (match) · 537 history records