Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T08:57:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
86 0x869a…a294 world 9 markets active 0h ago coverage 101d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$36 (+1%) realized +$45 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate75%6W / 2L
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$464per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$229now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 38% −$1
sports 33% +$24
world 22% +$4
culture 6% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 2 +0.7% -8.9% 100% 0% -8.9%
≤90d 7 +0.7% -8.9% 71% 0% -8.8%
all 8 +0.8% -8.8% 75% 0% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 0% -8.7%
10% -17.5% 0% -17.4%
15% -25.5% 0% -25.4%
20% -32.8% 0% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 50% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$6 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×4.17 per $1 lost it wins $4.17
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$229
Realized+$45
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses6 / 2
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage101d
Avg bet$464
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by December 31? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $238 $229 −$9 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 23 $271 +$1 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026? Jun 22 $346 +$4 +1%
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 202 May 17 $350 +$9 +3%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $361 −$7 -2%
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 25 $420 +$10 +2%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 17 $959 +$14 +1%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 02 $517 −$5 -1%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 26 $716 +$10 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by December 31? BUY Yes 13¢ $39 13m
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by December 31? BUY Yes 13¢ $36 22m
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by December 31? BUY Yes 13¢ $39 1h
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by December 31? BUY Yes 13¢ $38 1h
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by December 31? BUY Yes 13¢ $46 1h
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by December 31? BUY Yes 13¢ $40 1h
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $271 6d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $349 7d
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $271 17d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $346 30d
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 202 SELL No 98¢ $359 43d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 91¢ $6 45d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 91¢ $200 45d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 91¢ $9 45d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 91¢ $24 45d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 91¢ $55 45d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 91¢ $61 45d
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 202 BUY No 96¢ $350 46d
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 94¢ $431 65d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 92¢ $16 65d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 92¢ $10 65d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 92¢ $12 65d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 92¢ $322 66d
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 91¢ $420 70d
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 94¢ $323 73d
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 94¢ $649 73d
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 92¢ $959 80d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 75¢ $174 88d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 75¢ $4 88d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 75¢ $8 88d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $228.75 · official $228.75 (match) · 74 history records