Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T07:41:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
86 0x8699…3368 other 69 markets active 1h ago coverage 588d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$35 (+1%) realized +$35 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate81%55W / 13L
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit19%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 58% −$3
other 40% +$35
crypto 2% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +7.2% -3.1% 100% 0% -3.1%
≤30d 3 +35.2% +22.3% 100% 33% +1.3%
≤90d 5 +23.0% +11.3% 100% 20% -2.0%
all 68 +5.1% -5.0% 81% 18% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.0% 18% -8.8%
10% -14.0% 13% -17.6%
15% -22.4% 9% -25.5%
20% -30.0% 6% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% too few recent
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$6 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.53 per $1 lost it wins $1.53
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

588d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized+$35
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses55 / 13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)68 / 69
History coverage588d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit19%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 68 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 97¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? Jun 24 $2 $0 +7%
Will White House post 160-179 posts from March 20 to March 27, 2026? May 27 $4 +$4 +92%
Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from March 20 to March 27, 2026? May 27 $50 +$3 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from January 12 to January 14, 2026? Mar 27 $22 +$2 +8%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February? Mar 27 $30 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026? Jan 12 $40 +$1 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 202 Dec 05 $29 −$5 -16%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 2025? Nov 26 $53 +$2 +4%
Will Ethereum reach $5400 in October? Nov 07 $52 +$1 +1%
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 23 $51 +$1 +2%
Will Elon tweet 400 or more times August 29–September 5? Sep 05 $40 +$1 +2%
Will Elon tweet 150–164 times August 22–August 29? Aug 30 $43 +$1 +2%
Will Elon tweet 325–349 times August 15–August 22? Aug 23 $40 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 550–574 times August 8–August 15? Aug 16 $25 +$1 +4%
Will Elon tweet 375–389 times August 1–August 8? Aug 08 $49 −$17 -35%
Will Elon tweet 210–224 times August 1–August 8? Aug 06 $48 +$1 +2%
Will Elon tweet 105–119 times July 25–August 1? Jul 31 $52 +$1 +2%
Will Elon tweet 255 or more times July 18–25? Jul 26 $47 +$2 +4%
Will Elon tweet 255 or more times July 11–18? Jul 19 $41 +$2 +4%
Will Elon tweet 270 or more times July 4–11? Jul 12 $54 +$1 +1%
Will Elon tweet less than 90 times July 4–11? Jul 08 $37 +$1 +4%
Will Elon tweet 150–164 times June 27–July 4? Jul 05 $66 −$22 -33%
Will Elon tweet 165–179 times June 27–July 4? Jul 05 $24 +$31 +133%
Will Elon tweet 195–209 times June 27–July 4? Jul 04 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Elon tweet 180–194 times June 27–July 4? Jul 04 $12 −$11 -98%
Will Elon tweet 270 or more times June 27–July 4? Jul 02 $40 +$1 +2%
Will Elon tweet 295 or more times June 20–27? Jun 26 $52 +$2 +4%
Will Elon tweet 220–234 times June 13–20? Jun 21 $46 +$1 +2%
Will Elon tweet less than 150 times June 6–13? Jun 12 $55 +$3 +6%
Will Elon tweet 125–139 times May 30–June 6? Jun 03 $54 +$1 +1%
Will Elon tweet 125–149 times May 16–23? Jun 02 $52 +$1 +3%
Will Elon tweet 100–124 times May 16–23? May 20 $50 +$3 +5%
Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 9–16? May 16 $49 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 325–349 times May 2–9? May 10 $49 +$1 +2%
Will Elon tweet 200–224 times April 25–May 2? May 01 $48 +$1 +2%
Will Elon tweet 225–249 times April 18–25? Apr 25 $51 −$3 -7%
Will Elon tweet 100–124 times April 18–25? Apr 22 $47 +$4 +9%
Will Elon tweet 200–224 times April 11–18? Apr 18 $45 +$2 +4%
Will Elon tweet 125–149 times April 11–18? Apr 16 $84 +$4 +4%
Will Elon tweet 250 or more times April 4 - 11? Apr 10 $40 +$2 +4%
Will Elon tweet 375-399 times March 28 - April 4? Apr 04 $36 +$4 +11%
Will Elon tweet 350-374 times March 28 - April 4? Apr 02 $35 +$1 +2%
Will Elon tweet less than 300 times March 28 - April 4? Apr 01 $35 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 375-399 times March 21-28? Mar 28 $34 +$1 +2%
Will Elon tweet 350-374 times March 14-21? Mar 21 $33 +$1 +4%
Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14? Mar 15 $13 +$1 +9%
Will Elon tweet 525-549 times March 7-14? Mar 10 $2 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 7-14? Mar 10 $2 −$1 -50%
Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 7-14? Mar 10 $2 +$1 +40%
Will Elon tweet 550-574 times March 7-14? Mar 10 $2 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $30 1h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $2 28d
Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from March 20 to March 27, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $50 89d
Will White House post 160-179 posts from March 20 to March 27, 2026? BUY Yes 52¢ $4 89d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February? BUY No 98¢ $30 120d
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from January 12 to January 14, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $22 163d
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $40 174d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 202 SELL No 82¢ $24 201d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 202 BUY No 98¢ $29 202d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 2025? BUY No 96¢ $53 229d
Will Ethereum reach $5400 in October? BUY No 99¢ $52 243d
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? BUY Yes 98¢ $51 268d
Will Elon tweet 400 or more times August 29–September 5? BUY Yes 98¢ $40 294d
Will Elon tweet 150–164 times August 22–August 29? SELL No 100¢ $44 298d
Will Elon tweet 150–164 times August 22–August 29? BUY No 98¢ $43 300d
Will Elon tweet 325–349 times August 15–August 22? BUY No 99¢ $40 308d
Will Elon tweet 550–574 times August 8–August 15? BUY No 96¢ $25 313d
Will Elon tweet 375–389 times August 1–August 8? SELL No 64¢ $20 320d
Will Elon tweet 375–389 times August 1–August 8? SELL No 64¢ $12 320d
Will Elon tweet 375–389 times August 1–August 8? BUY No 98¢ $49 321d
Will Elon tweet 210–224 times August 1–August 8? BUY No 98¢ $48 323d
Will Elon tweet 105–119 times July 25–August 1? BUY No 98¢ $52 330d
Will Elon tweet 255 or more times July 18–25? BUY No 96¢ $47 337d
Will Elon tweet 255 or more times July 11–18? BUY No 96¢ $41 343d
Will Elon tweet 270 or more times July 4–11? BUY No 99¢ $54 351d
Will Elon tweet less than 90 times July 4–11? SELL No 100¢ $39 351d
Will Elon tweet less than 90 times July 4–11? BUY No 96¢ $37 353d
Will Elon tweet 195–209 times June 27–July 4? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 354d
Will Elon tweet 180–194 times June 27–July 4? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 354d
Will Elon tweet 195–209 times June 27–July 4? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 355d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.98 · official $29.98 (match) · 153 history records