Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T15:08:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

86
0x8697…ff3a
world · 68 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$25 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$0 · open −$25
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$148
Realized+$0
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses35 / 29
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)64 / 68
History coverage214d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%
Chart Positions 4 History 64 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$60
30 days+$59
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 86¢ 81¢ $65 $62 −$3 (-5%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 52¢ 46¢ $50 $44 −$6 (-12%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? No 78¢ 68¢ $25 $22 −$3 (-12%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? No 65¢ 40¢ $34 $21 −$13 (-39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $403 +$45 +11%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $200 +$11 +6%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $64 +$3 +5%
Will Kylian Mbappé have the most goal contributions in the 2025-26 Cha May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 26 $17 $0 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April? May 02 $17 $0 +1%
Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Apr 25 $17 $0 -2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 25 $12 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 25 $13 −$1 -5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 24 $11 $0 +3%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $1 +$1 +143%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $2 +$7 +285%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? Apr 22 $4 +$1 +25%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Real Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal? Apr 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sporting CP reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal? Apr 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona: Both Teams to Score Apr 14 $1 $0 +41%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 14 $1 +$1 +66%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 09 $9 +$2 +21%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? Apr 09 $3 $0 +7%
Maduro out by March 31, 2026? Apr 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $1 $0 -33%
Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI? Apr 01 $1 $0 -28%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 01 $5 −$3 -65%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Apr 01 $9 $0 +4%
US x Venezuela military engagement by March 31, 2026? Mar 27 $1 −$1 -100%
US government shutdown Saturday? Mar 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election? Mar 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Maduro out in 2025? Feb 14 $1 $0 +15%
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? Feb 14 $1 $0 +47%
Trump imposes tariff on semiconductors by December 31? Jan 01 $1 $0 +18%
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords in 2025? Jan 01 $2 +$3 +162%
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by December 31? Jan 01 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 13 $1 $0 +3%
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 15? Dec 12 $2 $0 +20%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025? Dec 12 $4 +$1 +15%
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? Dec 10 $5 $0 -2%
New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI? Dec 10 $1 $0 -1%
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? Dec 10 $1 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture Huliaipole by December 31? Dec 10 $1 $0 +5%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga seaso Dec 10 $5 $0 +1%
Hezbollah strike on Israel by December 31? Dec 10 $1 $0 +34%
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs? Dec 10 $1 $0 +8%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 10 $1 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Dec 05 $1 $0 +1%
David Baszucki out as Roblox CEO in 2025? Dec 05 $6 $0 +4%
House passes Epstein disclosure bill/resolution in 2025? Dec 02 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Russia capture Ivanopillya by November 30? Dec 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by November 30? Dec 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 90% +$5
other 6% −$20
sports 3% −$8
politics 1% −$3
tech 0% $0
culture 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $65 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 52¢ $50 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 65¢ $29 12d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY No 78¢ $25 12d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 64¢ $5 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $448 12d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 100¢ $211 12d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 100¢ $67 12d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 95¢ $64 14d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 95¢ $200 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $200 14d
Will Kylian Mbappé have the most goal contributions in the 2025-26 Cha SELL Yes 0¢ $0 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $116 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $58 16d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $12 17d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $17 18d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? SELL No 100¢ $17 18d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $17 41d
Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April? BUY No 99¢ $17 46d
Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? SELL No 82¢ $17 48d
Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? BUY No 83¢ $17 48d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? SELL No 100¢ $12 48d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? SELL No 98¢ $5 48d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? BUY No 100¢ $12 49d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 97¢ $11 51d
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $2 51d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY No 91¢ $5 52d
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? BUY No 37¢ $1 53d
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $4 53d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? BUY No 26¢ $2 53d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-20.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 5 -15.1% -23.2% 80% 20% -1.7%
≤90d 29 -14.3% -22.4% 52% 24% -3.6%
all 64 -12.2% -20.6% 55% 27% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.6% 27% -9.5%
10% -28.2% 14% -18.2%
15% -35.1% 11% -26.1%
20% -41.5% 8% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $148.33 · official $148.33 (match) · 156 history records