Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:19:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
86 0x8697…190d weather 591 markets active 2h ago coverage 243d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1,326 (-1%) realized −$2,898 · open +$1,572
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate86%493W / 81L
Whale WR96%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$285per market
Trades / day6.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$5,036now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$28
7 days+$30
14 days+$33
30 days−$3,398
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 86% +$538
other 12% −$3,689
world 1% +$1,819
culture 0% +$99
sports 0% +$71
politics 0% −$93
tech 0% −$100
economics 0% −$21
finance 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +2.3% -7.4% 100% 10% -8.7%
≤30d 165 +0.8% -8.8% 93% 5% -14.5%
≤90d 555 +0.2% -9.3% 88% 6% -11.0%
all 574 +0.1% -9.5% 86% 6% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 6% -11.1%
10% -18.1% 4% -19.6%
15% -26.0% 3% -27.4%
20% -33.3% 2% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 96% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$62 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

243d coverage
Net worth$5,036
Realized−$2,898
Unrealized+$1,572
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses493 / 81
Whale WR (big bets)96%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions17
Markets (closed)574 / 591
History coverage243d
Avg bet$285
Trades / day6.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 574 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 33¢ 94¢ $885 $2,522 +$1,637 (+185%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 22? No 100¢ 99¢ $1,066 $1,061 −$5 (-0%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 20°C on June 22? No 100¢ 99¢ $831 $826 −$5 (-1%)
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 22? No 100¢ 99¢ $360 $358 −$2 (-0%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on June 22? No 100¢ 99¢ $156 $155 −$1 (-0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No 21¢ 14¢ $84 $54 −$30 (-36%)
Will NYC have less than 2 inches of precipitation in June? No 96¢ 88¢ $16 $14 −$1 (-8%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $10 $11 +$2 (+20%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-20%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+13%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+32%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-5%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-33%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+3%)
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 14¢ 2¢ $6 $1 −$5 (-84%)
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 23¢ 1¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-96%)
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun Jun 22 $781 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Jun Jun 22 $100 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun Jun 22 $14 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 70-71°F on June 21? Jun 22 $90 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 21? Jun 22 $344 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 21? Jun 22 $123 $0 +0%
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? Jun 21 $120 +$27 +22%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 19? Jun 19 $1,336 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 17? Jun 18 $243 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 19°C on June 17? Jun 17 $349 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 12°C on June 11? Jun 11 $725 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Jun Jun 11 $599 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 14°C on June 10? Jun 10 $729 +$1 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $94 +$6 +6%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 3? Jun 04 $30 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 3? Jun 04 $93 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 3? Jun 04 $35 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be 92°F or higher on June 3? Jun 04 $35 $0 +0%
Will Seoul have between 100-110mm of precipitation in May? Jun 03 $425 +$2 +0%
Will Seoul have between 120-130mm of precipitation in May? Jun 03 $677 +$2 +0%
Will Seoul have between 130-140mm of precipitation in May? Jun 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will London have between 5-10mm of precipitation in May? Jun 02 $2,099 +$45 +2%
Will London have less than 5mm of precipitation in May? Jun 02 $5,281 −$3,991 -76%
Will London have between 25-30mm of precipitation in May? Jun 02 $14 $0 +1%
Will London have 30mm or more of precipitation in May? Jun 02 $222 +$5 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 02 $87 −$87 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 1? Jun 02 $242 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C or higher on June 1? Jun 02 $199 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 10°C on June 1? Jun 02 $118 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 18°C or higher on June 1? Jun 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 1? Jun 02 $134 $0 +0%
Will London have between 15-20mm of precipitation in May? Jun 01 $7 −$7 -97%
Will Seattle have more than 3 inches of precipitation in May? Jun 01 $37 $0 +1%
Will Seattle have between 2.5 and 3 inches of precipitation in May? Jun 01 $8 $0 +1%
Will Seattle have between 0.5 and 1 inches of precipitation in May? Jun 01 $39 +$12 +31%
Will NYC have between 3 and 4 inches of precipitation in May? Jun 01 $535 +$12 +2%
Will NYC have more than 6 inches of precipitation in May? Jun 01 $168 +$1 +0%
Will NYC have between 2 and 3 inches of precipitation in May? Jun 01 $129 +$1 +1%
Will NYC have less than 2 inches of precipitation in May? Jun 01 $7 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on May Jun 01 $106 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on May Jun 01 $209 +$2 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 62°F or higher on May Jun 01 $473 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C or higher on May 31? Jun 01 $91 $0 +0%
Will Hong Kong have between 220-230mm of precipitation in May? Jun 01 $11 +$40 +354%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 30? Jun 01 $10 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on May 29? Jun 01 $1,945 +$3 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 19°C on May 31? Jun 01 $22 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on May 31? Jun 01 $837 +$7 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 21°C or higher on May 31? Jun 01 $142 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on May 31? Jun 01 $3,195 +$9 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Jun BUY No 100¢ $85 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $93 1h
Will NYC have less than 2 inches of precipitation in June? BUY No 96¢ $16 3h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun BUY Yes 100¢ $781 3h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun BUY No 100¢ $14 3h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $100 4h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $260 4h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Jun BUY No 100¢ $71 4h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $53 4h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 7h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $334 7h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $80 7h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Jun BUY No 100¢ $100 7h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $507 7h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $294 7h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $123 7h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 70-71°F on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $90 7h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 20°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $831 7h
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? SELL No 77¢ $62 16h
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? SELL No 77¢ $77 19h
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? SELL No 77¢ $4 23h
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? SELL No 77¢ $4 25h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $449 3d
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $887 3d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $243 5d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 19°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $349 5d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 12°C on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $725 11d
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 14°C on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $729 12d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Jun BUY No 100¢ $599 12d
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $93 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,036.25 · official $5,036.25 (match) · 2111 history records