Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T09:35:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

86
0x8693…56bc
crypto · 106 markets active 0h ago
4.5score
+$2 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$3 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$4
Realized+$3
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses83 / 22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)105 / 106
History coverage38d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%
Chart Positions 1 History 105 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$26
14 days−$3
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Up 44¢ 32¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-28%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? No 55¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Up 67¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Up 60¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Up 63¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
BNB Up or Down - June 10, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Up 93¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Down 97¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 54¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +18%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +65%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 11, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$2 +23%
BNB Up or Down - June 11, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 11, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$1 +14%
BNB Up or Down - June 10, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$1 +6%
BNB Up or Down - June 10, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 09 $10 +$1 +12%
BNB Up or Down - June 9, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 09 $10 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 09 $10 +$6 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 09 $10 +$6 +57%
BNB Up or Down - June 9, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 09 $10 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 09 $10 +$4 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 07 $10 −$10 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 7, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 07 $10 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 07 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 07 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 07 $10 +$6 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 06 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 06 $10 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 06 $10 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET May 31 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET May 31 $10 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET May 31 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET May 31 $10 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET May 31 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET May 30 $10 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET May 26 $10 +$4 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 84% +$38
other 16% −$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 28m
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 40m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 55¢ $5 15h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 2d
BNB Up or Down - June 11, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $10 2d
BNB Up or Down - June 11, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $10 2d
BNB Up or Down - June 11, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $10 2d
BNB Up or Down - June 10, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $10 3d
BNB Up or Down - June 10, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -6.5% -15.4% 72% 60% -16.9%
≤30d 75 -0.6% -10.1% 77% 61% -10.5%
≤90d 105 +1.3% -8.4% 79% 57% -9.2%
all 105 +1.3% -8.4% 79% 57% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 57% -9.2%
10% -17.1% 37% -17.9%
15% -25.1% 24% -25.8%
20% -32.5% 10% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.58 · official $5.97 · 260 history records