Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:25:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
86 0x868b…2106 other 55 markets active 1h ago coverage 223d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$437 (-9%) realized −$509 · open +$72
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate26%13W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$85per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$42est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$552now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$654
7 days−$491
14 days−$491
30 days−$491
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% +$73
other 16% −$373
crypto 3% −$119
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-40.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 -34.2% -40.5% 26% 26% -20.1%
≤30d 50 -34.2% -40.5% 26% 26% -20.1%
≤90d 50 -34.2% -40.5% 26% 26% -20.1%
all 50 -34.2% -40.5% 26% 26% -20.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.5% 26% -20.1%
10% -46.2% 24% -27.8%
15% -51.4% 22% -34.8%
20% -56.1% 18% -41.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late -38% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$113 vs −$53 · ×2.13 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

223d coverage
Net worth$552
Realized−$509
Unrealized+$72
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses13 / 37
Est. fees paid−$42
Open positions5
Markets (closed)50 / 55
History coverage223d
Avg bet$85
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Under 62¢ 74¢ $200 $240 +$40 (+20%)
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Côte dIvoire 57¢ 68¢ $200 $237 +$37 (+18%)
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Yes 11¢ 14¢ $30 $37 +$7 (+23%)
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $30 $22 −$8 (-25%)
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 3 Côte d'Ivoire? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $37 −$37 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Sweden? Jun 20 $31 −$31 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $31 −$31 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 3 Sweden? Jun 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $202 +$101 +50%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $102 −$73 -71%
Exact Score: Scotland 2 - 2 Morocco? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $203 +$222 +109%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $101 +$68 +67%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $204 +$368 +180%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Qatar? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 19 $101 −$101 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 2 Qatar? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $102 −$102 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 3 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $101 +$74 +73%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $304 +$213 +70%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $101 +$95 +93%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $101 +$71 +70%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 1 Norway? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 0 Norway? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 18 $101 −$101 -100%
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 1 Colombia? Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 2 Panama? Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 18 $300 −$300 -100%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 3 Panama? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 3 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Jun 18 $691 −$691 -100%
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $101 −$56 -55%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 +$4 +42%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $506 +$67 +13%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 +$50 +982%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $203 −$98 -48%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +35%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $202 +$131 +65%
Exact Score: France 3 - 3 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -87%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 57¢ $203 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 62¢ $202 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 66¢ $202 1h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 3 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 1¢ $21 2h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 6¢ $31 2h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 11¢ $31 2h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 3 Sweden? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 4h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Sweden? BUY Yes 7¢ $21 4h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 12¢ $27 4h
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 5¢ $21 4h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 3 Sweden? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 4h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Sweden? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 4h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 4h
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 4h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 14¢ $29 15h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 27h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 32h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 47¢ $203 32h
Exact Score: Scotland 2 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 32h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 32h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 35¢ $204 32h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $101 47h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 47h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $304 47h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 47h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $101 2d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 64¢ $101 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 30¢ $42 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 30¢ $3 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 10¢ $15 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $551.87 · official $487.97 · 114 history records