Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:34:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
86 0x868b…16a0 crypto 340 markets active 7d ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (169 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$133 (-3%) realized −$133 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate77%261W / 79L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day169.1pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$127
sports 6% −$41
other 1% −$5
politics 0% $0
world 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (169 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 99 +2.2% -7.6% 86% 52% -10.6%
≤30d 340 -0.9% -10.3% 77% 42% -13.0%
≤90d 340 -0.9% -10.3% 77% 42% -13.0%
all 340 -0.9% -10.3% 77% 42% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover169.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.3% 42% -13.0%
10% ← realistic here -18.9% 26% -21.3%
15% -26.7% 6% -28.9%
20% -33.9% 2% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$10 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$133
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses261 / 79
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)340 / 340
History coverage3d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day169.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 340 Trades
no open positions (30 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 10 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 10 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 10 $6 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 10 $6 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 10 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$2 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 10 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 10 $4 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 10 $4 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 10 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 10 $4 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 10 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 10 $4 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 10 $6 +$2 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 10 $4 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 10 $4 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 10 $3 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 10 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $8 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $4 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 849 history records