Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:46:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
86 0x868a…61a6 other 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$90 (-8%) realized −$29 · open −$61
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -53% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -58% what you keep after slip
Net edge-58%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate5%2W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$244now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$251
7 days−$251
14 days−$251
30 days−$251
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$157
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-57.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 24 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 24 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 38 -53.0% -57.5% 5% 5% -70.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -57.5% 5% -70.5%
10% -61.6% 5% -73.4%
15% -65.3% 5% -75.9%
20% -68.7% 5% -78.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 82% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -53% · $-wt -67% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -100% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$57 vs −$13 · ×4.43 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$244
Realized−$29
Unrealized−$61
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses2 / 36
Open positions22
Markets (closed)38 / 17
History coverage115d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 38¢ $10 $101 +$91 (+875%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 26¢ $10 $69 +$58 (+563%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 22¢ $10 $58 +$48 (+459%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $10 $14 +$3 (+31%)
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-97%)
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Mar 01 $28 −$24 -86%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Mar 01 $32 −$27 -83%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Mar 01 $24 −$10 -42%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Mar 01 $16 +$20 +124%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Mar 01 $3 −$3 -93%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Mar 01 $8 −$8 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Mar 01 $12 −$11 -92%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Mar 01 $22 −$20 -90%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Mar 01 $26 −$23 -87%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 26 to February 28, 2026 Feb 28 $7 +$93 +1327%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Feb 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 26 to February 28, 202 Feb 25 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 26 to February 28, 20 Feb 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 26 to February 28, 2026 Feb 25 $42 −$42 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $26 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $8 1h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $268 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL Yes 92¢ $103 2h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL Yes 92¢ $32 2h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL Yes 92¢ $92 2h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL Yes 92¢ $10 2h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $13 2h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $8 2h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 20h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $9 20h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $257 20h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $16 20h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 80¢ $218 21h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $16 4d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $5 4d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 4d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 4d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $272 4d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $4 110d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $5 110d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $14 110d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $37 110d
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 110d
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 110d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 110d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 110d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 110d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 26 to February 28, 2026 SELL Yes 100¢ $100 111d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $243.65 · official $243.65 (match) · 101 history records