Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:45:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
86 0x8689…c12b crypto 131 markets active 2h ago coverage 93d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$72 (-8%) realized −$53 · open −$19
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate46%56W / 66L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$261now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$11
14 days−$7
30 days+$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 49% −$30
other 29% −$37
crypto 14% $0
world 4% −$23
politics 3% +$3
culture 1% −$6
finance 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +53.6% +39.0% 44% 33% +18.0%
≤30d 23 +30.7% +18.2% 48% 35% +3.3%
≤90d 69 -6.9% -15.7% 38% 30% -25.4%
all 122 +3.6% -6.3% 46% 39% -21.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.3% 39% -21.8%
10% -15.3% 34% -29.3%
15% -23.4% 30% -36.1%
20% -30.9% 26% -42.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$261
Realized−$53
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses56 / 66
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions9
Markets (closed)122 / 131
History coverage93d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 122 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $200 $188 −$12 (-6%)
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes $30 $28 −$2 (-7%)
Will Washington Wizards win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes $12 $18 +$6 (+52%)
Will San Antonio Spurs win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes 27¢ 22¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-20%)
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 28¢ 20¢ $5 $4 −$2 (-30%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Yes $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 67¢ 68¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes $2 $1 −$1 (-35%)
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 22¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 20 $25 +$2 +8%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 +$5 +474%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $2 +$8 +388%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $2 +$2 +113%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $77 −$37 -48%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $16 +$2 +10%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $11 +$13 +114%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $5 +$14 +288%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $2 +$4 +197%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 04 $3 −$1 -46%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 04 $26 +$20 +78%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $20 +$26 +128%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $5 $0 +2%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $4 −$4 -98%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 23 $3 −$2 -55%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Apr 27 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Apr 27 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 27 $35 −$21 -61%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Apr 26 $22 −$12 -55%
Thunder vs. Suns Apr 25 $2 +$1 +53%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 25 $4 +$9 +236%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Apr 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Apr 25 $2 −$1 -50%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Apr 25 $3 +$4 +136%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Apr 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Kon Knueppel win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award? Apr 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 23 $5 −$4 -88%
Will Keldon Johnson win the 2025–2026 NBA Sixth Man of the Year? Apr 23 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Apr 16 $1 $0 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Apr 16 $1 $0 -44%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 16 $7 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Apr 16 $2 $0 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Apr 16 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Apr 15 $1 +$1 +143%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will gas hit (High) $4.50 by April 30? Apr 13 $2 +$1 +34%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? Apr 13 $2 +$2 +77%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2025–2026 NBA Southeast Division? Apr 11 $2 $0 +3%
Spurs vs. Nuggets Apr 04 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Apr 04 $1 $0 -33%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 04 $2 −$2 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 10¢ $26 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $2 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $3 1h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 84¢ $2 1h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $93 3d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $93 3d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 3d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 3d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 3d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 3d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 3d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 3d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 83¢ $10 7d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 19¢ $15 7d
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY Yes $10 8d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 8d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 8d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 94¢ $16 9d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks $2 9d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 23¢ $8 9d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 20¢ $2 11d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $8 11d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 82¢ $19 12d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $1 13d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $10 14d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 33¢ $2 15d
Will San Antonio Spurs win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 15d
Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY Yes $10 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $260.52 · official $260.52 (match) · 351 history records