Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:30:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

86 0x8682…2fa5 crypto 23 markets active 5d ago coverage 4d

TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)

Total PnL −$437 (-18%) realized −$437 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip

Net edge-35%after slip

Net WR43%break-even

Win rate57%13W / 10L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$108per market

Trades / day10.5pace

Fees−$9est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +43%

net ROI/market (all)-29.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	18	-16.4%	-24.4%	61%	44%	-24.9%
≤30d	23	-22.6%	-29.9%	57%	43%	-26.2%
≤90d	23	-22.6%	-29.9%	57%	43%	-26.2%
all	23	-22.6%	-29.9%	57%	43%	-26.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover10.5 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-29.9%	43%	-26.2%
10%	-36.6%	43%	-33.3%
15%	-42.8%	22%	-39.7%
20%	-48.4%	9%	-45.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 36% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

23% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -23% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -36% → late -10% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$22 vs −$75 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.38 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$437

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)57%

Wins / losses13 / 10

Est. fees paid−$9

Open positions0

Markets (closed)23 / 23

History coverage4d

Avg bet$108

Trades / day10.5

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 23 Trades

no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Jun 12	$1	−$1	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Jun 11	$31	−$30	-97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	Jun 11	$23	+$7	+29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	Jun 11	$16	+$7	+42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	Jun 11	$10	+$7	+65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET	Jun 11	$296	−$296	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	Jun 11	$6	+$4	+62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	Jun 11	$224	+$78	+35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET	Jun 11	$141	−$141	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	Jun 11	$329	+$27	+8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	Jun 11	$302	+$21	+7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	Jun 11	$41	+$11	+27%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	Jun 11	$51	+$14	+28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET	Jun 11	$288	+$4	+2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET	Jun 11	$26	−$26	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	Jun 11	$5	−$5	-96%
Spread: Spurs (-14.5)	Jun 11	$216	+$103	+48%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Jun 11	$423	−$197	-46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Jun 09	$9	−$9	-98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET	Jun 09	$6	−$6	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Jun 09	$11	+$4	+40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Jun 09	$1	$0	+34%
Spurs vs. Knicks	Jun 09	$39	−$38	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	BUY Up	25¢	$1	4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	BUY Down	57¢	$31	6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	BUY Up	76¢	$23	6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	BUY Up	69¢	$16	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	BUY Down	59¢	$10	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	BUY Down	60¢	$6	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET	BUY Up	72¢	$296	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$63	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$12	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$6	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$21	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$32	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$100	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$5	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$63	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	BUY Up	72¢	$224	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET	BUY Down	94¢	$141	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$356	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	BUY Up	91¢	$329	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$96	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$99	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$127	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	BUY Up	92¢	$302	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	SELL Up	98¢	$52	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	BUY Up	76¢	$41	6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$65	6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	BUY Up	76¢	$51	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET	BUY Down	98¢	$288	6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET	BUY Up	63¢	$26	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	BUY Up	36¢	$5	6d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 56 history records