Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T18:24:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
86 0x867f…9ae3 other 10 markets active 0h ago coverage 14d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$658 (-40%) realized −$736 · open +$78
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate22%2W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$163per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$378now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 14d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% −$536
sports 31% +$47
world 6% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-28.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 9 -21.3% -28.8% 22% 22% -55.8%
≤90d 9 -21.3% -28.8% 22% 22% -55.8%
all 9 -21.3% -28.8% 22% 22% -55.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.8% 22% -55.8%
10% -35.6% 22% -60.0%
15% -41.8% 22% -63.9%
20% -47.5% 22% -67.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -51% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -51% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$173 vs −$145 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$378
Realized−$736
Unrealized+$78
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses2 / 7
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage14d
Avg bet$163
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 36¢ 46¢ $300 $378 +$78 (+26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $128 −$125 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 16 $51 −$6 -11%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $405 −$400 -99%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $51 −$11 -21%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $306 −$300 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 +$155 +152%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $102 +$192 +188%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $74 −$72 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 46¢ $102 4m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 23¢ $102 19m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 56¢ $101 1h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 10¢ $77 12d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 15¢ $46 12d
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 65¢ $354 12d
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? SELL Yes 9¢ $41 12d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $306 12d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 13d
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 10¢ $51 13d
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 13d
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 13d
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? BUY Yes 23¢ $102 13d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 39¢ $102 13d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 34¢ $102 13d
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 10¢ $74 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.