Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T06:23:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
86 0x867e…bdf3 world 56 markets active 3h ago coverage 273d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+0%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate31%17W / 37L
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% +$5
other 29% +$1
politics 11% −$1
crypto 3% $0
sports 3% $0
culture 3% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -1.2% -10.6% 22% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 11 -2.7% -12.0% 18% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 20 -0.4% -9.9% 40% 5% -8.9%
all 54 -0.5% -10.0% 31% 2% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 2% -9.2%
10% -18.6% 0% -17.9%
15% -26.4% 0% -25.8%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 77% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.28 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.04 per $1 lost it wins $2.04
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

273d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses17 / 37
Open positions2
Markets (closed)54 / 56
History coverage273d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? No 96¢ 96¢ $43 $43 +$0 (+0%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 97¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 24 $48 $0 +0%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 24 $48 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $63 −$1 -1%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 21 $44 $0 -1%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $93 +$1 +1%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $88 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $4 $0 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $7 −$1 -8%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $49 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $2 $0 -18%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $141 −$1 -1%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 25 $51 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 24 $37 +$6 +16%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 24 $35 +$1 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 23 $49 +$2 +4%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 23 $38 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 22 $38 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 21 $18 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 21 $25 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 20 $38 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 01 $3 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 31 $21 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with Ali Khamenei in 2025? Jan 31 $9 $0 +2%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 20 $1 $0 -3%
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? Oct 17 $17 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Oct 17 $17 $0 +0%
Will Avatar: Fire and Ash win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Oct 13 $17 $0 +0%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 11 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 11 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 10 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 10 $17 $0 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 10 $16 $0 +0%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by December 31? Oct 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Oct 09 $18 −$1 -6%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 09 $18 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 06 $17 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will Gabriela Firea be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 04 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Oct 04 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 04 $9 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 04 $5 $0 +1%
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December Oct 04 $7 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.00 in September? Oct 02 $26 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 30 $2 $0 -3%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 30 $24 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 29 $27 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 29 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 28 $27 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 27 $25 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 27 $24 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $43 2h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $48 16h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $48 20h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $48 27h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $48 29h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $8 37h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $4 37h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $8 37h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $20 40h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $48 40h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $48 42h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $33 47h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $11 47h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $40 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $4 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $10 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $34 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $44 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $49 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $49 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $8 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $36 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $44 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 90¢ $1 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 90¢ $4 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 90¢ $40 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 88¢ $10 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 88¢ $33 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.11 · official $43.24 (match) · 199 history records