Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:13:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
86 0x867d…8888 crypto 837 markets active 6d ago coverage 57d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$174 (-9%) realized −$174 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate49%408W / 429L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day40.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 57d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$218
sports 1% −$13
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 801 -8.0% -16.8% 50% 47% -16.5%
≤30d 806 -8.2% -16.9% 50% 47% -16.7%
≤90d 837 -8.6% -17.3% 49% 46% -20.2%
all 837 -8.6% -17.3% 49% 46% -20.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.3% 46% -20.2%
10% ← realistic here -25.2% 42% -27.8%
15% -32.5% 36% -34.8%
20% -39.1% 31% -41.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$174
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses408 / 429
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)837 / 837
History coverage57d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day40.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 837 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum above 1,620 on June 10, 4PM ET? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum above 1,610 on June 10, 4PM ET? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum above 1,640 on June 10, 4PM ET? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 3PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 3PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +114%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 3PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin above 61,000 on June 10, 4PM ET? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin above 62,000 on June 10, 4PM ET? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum above 1,600 on June 10, 4PM ET? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin above 61,200 on June 10, 4PM ET? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin above 61,400 on June 10, 4PM ET? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin above 62,400 on June 10, 4PM ET? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin above 61,600 on June 10, 4PM ET? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin above 62,200 on June 10, 4PM ET? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +18%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +12%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +40%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +60%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +105%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 2PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 2PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 2PM ET Jun 10 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +110%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +90%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +50%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +25%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +60%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 6d
Ethereum above 1,610 on June 10, 4PM ET? BUY No 2¢ $1 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin above 61,200 on June 10, 4PM ET? BUY No 3¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 6d
Ethereum above 1,640 on June 10, 4PM ET? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin above 61,400 on June 10, 4PM ET? BUY No 8¢ $1 6d
Ethereum above 1,620 on June 10, 4PM ET? BUY No 23¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin above 61,000 on June 10, 4PM ET? BUY No 2¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin above 62,000 on June 10, 4PM ET? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin above 62,400 on June 10, 4PM ET? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 6d
Ethereum above 1,600 on June 10, 4PM ET? BUY No 2¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin above 62,200 on June 10, 4PM ET? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin above 61,600 on June 10, 4PM ET? BUY No 21¢ $1 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 3PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3125 history records