Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:30:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
86 0x867d…4c48 crypto 217 markets active 1h ago coverage 69d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$22 (-4%) realized −$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate63%137W / 80L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day7.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 80% −$27
weather 11% −$7
sports 5% −$6
other 4% +$2
politics 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-19.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -31.6% -38.1% 43% 29% -33.6%
≤30d 40 -24.3% -31.5% 58% 35% -33.6%
≤90d 217 -11.4% -19.9% 63% 40% -14.9%
all 217 -11.4% -19.9% 63% 40% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.9% 40% -14.9%
10% -27.5% 19% -23.0%
15% -34.5% 6% -30.5%
20% -41.0% 2% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses137 / 80
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)217 / 217
History coverage69d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day7.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 217 Trades
no open positions (28 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 $0 -8%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 $0 +19%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -54%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +13%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET May 30 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 30, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 30 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 30 $3 −$3 -100%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? May 30 $3 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 30 $2 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET May 30 $1 $0 +25%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on May 30? May 30 $11 −$5 -43%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 30? May 30 $10 $0 +2%
Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 20 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET May 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET May 19 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET May 19 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET May 19 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET May 17 $1 −$1 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET May 17 $2 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET May 17 $2 −$1 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET May 17 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET May 17 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET May 17 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET May 17 $3 −$1 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET May 17 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET May 17 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET May 17 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET May 17 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET May 17 $1 $0 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET May 17 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET May 17 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET May 17 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET May 17 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET May 17 $1 −$1 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET May 17 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET May 16 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET May 16 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET May 16 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET May 16 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET May 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET May 13 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET May 12 $1 $0 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET May 12 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET May 12 $1 $0 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET May 12 $2 $0 -33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 41¢ $1 36m
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 44m
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 31¢ $1 1h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 30h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET SELL Up 53¢ $1 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Up 84¢ $1 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Up 61¢ $1 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Down 71¢ $1 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $1 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $0 16d
Solana Up or Down - May 30, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $7 16d
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? SELL No 62¢ $4 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $3 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $1 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 74¢ $1 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 16d
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on May 30? SELL No 50¢ $6 16d
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on May 30? BUY No 84¢ $11 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 531 history records