Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T12:27:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
86 0x8674…f92b politics 44 markets active 2h ago coverage 232d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%5W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$88now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 56% −$3
sports 26% −$3
other 8% −$1
crypto 5% $0
world 3% $0
tech 3% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 2 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.9%
all 43 -7.1% -15.9% 12% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.9% 0% -9.7%
10% -24.0% 0% -18.3%
15% -31.3% 0% -26.2%
20% -38.0% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

232d coverage
Net worth$88
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses5 / 38
Open positions1
Markets (closed)43 / 44
History coverage232d
Avg bet$79
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $88 $88 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $89 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $95 −$1 -1%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 04 $89 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 26 $3 $0 +6%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 26 $90 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on February 13? Feb 15 $89 $0 +0%
Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 08 $1 $0 -50%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 08 $180 $0 -0%
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 05 $94 −$1 -0%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 01 $87 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 31 $3 $0 -12%
Will Everton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 31 $86 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 29 $2 $0 -11%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 29 $89 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 27 $90 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 22 $190 −$1 -0%
Will Melania say "Career" during AI talk on Friday? Jan 21 $89 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 18 $91 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 16 $91 $0 -0%
Will Union Saint-Gilloise win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 15 $89 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 12 $188 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 10 $91 $0 -0%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 07 $1 $0 -20%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 06 $2 −$1 -33%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 06 $93 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 04 $185 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 30 $95 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 28 $90 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 16 $94 $0 -0%
Will Athletic Club win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 13 $93 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 13 $1 $0 -26%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 06 $1 $0 -20%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 06 $95 $0 -0%
Will Monaco win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 02 $96 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 29 $93 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 26 $73 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 25 $94 $0 +0%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Nov 23 $1 $0 -40%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 22 $95 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Falcons win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 20 $1 $0 -33%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 15 $95 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 in November? Nov 13 $95 $0 -0%
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 11 $96 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $88 1h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $89 6d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $89 19d
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 47d
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 116d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $89 118d
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 120d
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 122d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 122d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $90 122d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $90 127d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on February 13? BUY No 100¢ $89 136d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 136d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 140d
Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 140d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $87 140d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $87 143d
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 143d
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 147d
Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 147d
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $87 147d
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $87 148d
Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 148d
Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 149d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 149d
Will Everton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $86 149d
Will Everton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $86 150d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 150d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 151d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 151d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $88.42 · official $88.42 (match) · 187 history records