trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | No | 94¢ | 94¢ | $28 | $28 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | Yes | 27¢ | 26¢ | $0 | $0 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 12 | $31 | −$2 | -6% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Jun 12 | $32 | +$2 | +7% |
| Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? | Jun 12 | $29 | $0 | -0% |
| Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 10 | $31 | $0 | +0% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia | Jun 09 | $14 | $0 | +0% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | Jun 08 | $28 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? | Dec 31 | $1 | $0 | -4% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? | Jul 16 | $2 | −$1 | -64% |
| Will Walmart buy TikTok? | Jun 28 | $10 | $0 | +2% |
| Will André Ventura be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the 20 | May 21 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Conservative Party win by 50 or more seats? | Apr 26 | $10 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in Ontario in the next Canad | Apr 26 | $10 | $0 | -4% |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in April? | Apr 25 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Will another coalition form the next German Government? | Apr 25 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Victor Ponta win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romanian | Apr 24 | $10 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec | Apr 23 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days? | Apr 21 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? | Apr 19 | $9 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%? | Apr 19 | $1 | +$1 | +71% |
| Will the Titans draft Travis Hunter in 2025? | Apr 17 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Apr 17 | $23 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Michigan State win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | Mar 28 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Mar 25 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Mar 22 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 6 | +0.1% | -9.4% | 33% | 0% | -9.4% |
| ≤30d | 6 | +0.1% | -9.4% | 33% | 0% | -9.4% |
| ≤90d | 6 | +0.1% | -9.4% | 33% | 0% | -9.4% |
| all | 24 | +0.3% | -9.2% | 62% | 4% | -9.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -9.2% | 4% | -9.6% |
| 10% | -17.9% | 4% | -18.3% |
| 15% | -25.9% | 4% | -26.2% |
| 20% | -33.1% | 4% | -33.4% |