Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:18:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

86 0x8673…cbb6 crypto 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 71d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$26 (+0%) realized +$18 · open +$8

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip

Net edge-9%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate94%16W / 1L

Drawdown1%max

Avg bet$286per market

Trades / day0.4pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$2,035now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 71d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-9.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	-0.1%	-9.6%	0%	0%	-9.6%
≤30d	8	+0.2%	-9.4%	88%	0%	-9.3%
≤90d	17	+0.4%	-9.1%	94%	0%	-9.1%
all	17	+0.4%	-9.1%	94%	0%	-9.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.4 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-9.1%	0%	-9.1%
10%	-17.8%	0%	-17.8%
15%	-25.8%	0%	-25.8%
20%	-33.0%	0%	-33.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 30% · top 2 44% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$1 vs −$0 · ×4.42 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×70.65 per $1 lost it wins $70.65

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage

Net worth$2,035

Realized+$18

Unrealized+$8

Win rate (resolved)94%

Wins / losses16 / 1

Open positions5

Markets (closed)17 / 22

History coverage71d

Avg bet$286

Trades / day0.4

Drawdown1%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 5 History 17 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?	No	99¢	100¢	$564	$567	+$3 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June?	No	100¢	100¢	$548	$549	+$0 (+0%)
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June?	No	100¢	100¢	$469	$468	−$1 (-0%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	95¢	96¢	$225	$228	+$3 (+1%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	96¢	97¢	$220	$224	+$3 (+2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $35 by end of June?	Jun 18	$244	$0	-0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in May?	Jun 10	$197	$0	+0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in May?	Jun 10	$225	$0	+0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in May?	Jun 10	$232	$0	+0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Jun 10	$250	$0	+0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May?	Jun 10	$349	+$1	+0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Jun 10	$377	+$1	+0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	Jun 10	$392	+$3	+1%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April?	May 08	$188	$0	+0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April?	May 08	$203	+$1	+0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	May 08	$212	+$1	+1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April?	May 08	$214	+$1	+0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in April?	May 08	$219	+$1	+0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	May 08	$224	+$1	+0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April	May 08	$237	+$6	+2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	May 08	$243	+$3	+1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April?	May 08	$269	+$1	+0%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June	BUY Yes	96¢	$76	1h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	BUY Yes	96¢	$169	1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $35 by end of June?	SELL No	100¢	$243	1h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	BUY Yes	91¢	$57	8d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June	BUY Yes	96¢	$145	8d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $35 by end of June?	BUY No	100¢	$244	8d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?	BUY No	99¢	$564	8d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June?	BUY No	100¢	$548	8d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June?	BUY No	100¢	$469	8d
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in May?	BUY No	100¢	$197	41d
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in May?	BUY No	100¢	$225	41d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May?	BUY No	100¢	$349	41d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in May?	BUY No	100¢	$232	41d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	BUY No	99¢	$392	41d
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	BUY No	100¢	$250	41d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	BUY No	100¢	$377	41d
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April?	BUY No	100¢	$188	71d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April?	BUY No	100¢	$203	71d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	BUY No	100¢	$224	71d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	BUY No	99¢	$212	71d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April	BUY Yes	98¢	$237	71d
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April?	BUY No	100¢	$214	71d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April?	BUY No	100¢	$269	71d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in April?	BUY No	100¢	$219	71d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	BUY No	99¢	$243	71d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,034.96 · official $2,034.96 (match) · 41 history records