Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T08:59:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

86
0x8671…07b0
politics · 111 markets active 1h ago
2.5score
+$95 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$68 · open +$27
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$129
Realized+$68
Unrealized+$27
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses35 / 74
Whale WR (big bets)10%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)109 / 111
History coverage218d
Avg bet$249
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit81%
Chart Positions 2 History 109 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$32
14 days+$32
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 29¢ 54¢ $40 $74 +$34 (+84%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 66¢ 58¢ $62 $55 −$7 (-11%)
The Citadel Bulldogs vs. Western Carolina Catamounts: O/U 146.5 Over 50¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on December 5? Yes 57¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-04-06? No 62¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Lightning vs. Canadiens Lightning 53¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Hawks vs. Pacers Hawks 52¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Weibo Gaming 58¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Eagles vs. Packers Packers 50¢ 0¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
Nuggets vs. Lakers Nuggets 59¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Houston Cougars Houston Cougars 59¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Spread: Knicks (-3.5) Knicks 50¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-04-09? No 55¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Hurricanes vs. Lightning Lightning 55¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-03-18? No 60¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will Alanyaspor win on 2026-03-18? No 54¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Austin: Bianca Andreescu vs Lanlana Tararudee Bianca Andreescu 56¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Rangers vs. Golden Knights Rangers 44¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Grizzlies vs. 76ers Grizzlies 41¢ 0¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-100%)
Wild vs. Jets Jets 55¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Miami (OH) vs. Buffalo Buffalo 27¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Capitals vs. Islanders Islanders 48¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 13 $624 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $445 −$6 -1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 09 $50 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $370 −$1 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $54 −$1 -2%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $245 −$1 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 07 $67 +$41 +62%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $359 −$3 -1%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $193 $0 -0%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $455 −$6 -1%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $116 −$2 -2%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $23 $0 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $20 $0 -0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $22 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 19 $80 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? May 18 $20 $0 -1%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $22 $0 -2%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $135 −$2 -1%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $32 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? May 17 $147 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $292 −$11 -4%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 15 $44 $0 -0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $45 $0 -1%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 14 $37 −$2 -5%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 14 $204 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 14 $220 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 14 $230 −$1 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 14 $369 −$1 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $3,201 −$3 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $750 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $485 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 13 $360 −$1 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 13 $640 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 12 $300 −$1 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 12 $675 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 12 $384 −$1 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 12 $279 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $130 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom May 11 $130 −$1 -1%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $180 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $52 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $110 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $43 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $330 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $330 −$1 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $562 −$1 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $110 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $170 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no May 05 $240 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $381 −$2 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 65% −$68
other 29% +$37
world 3% +$67
sports 2% +$46
economics 0% $0
crypto 0% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $67 1h
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $67 2d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $25 3d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $38 3d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $65 3d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 0¢ $50 3d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $48 4d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $1 5d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $1 5d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $20 5d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $22 5d
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $25 5d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $20 5d
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $25 5d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $22 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $40 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $108 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 58¢ $67 17d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $17 17d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $14 17d
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $20 17d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $14 17d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $17 17d
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $20 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +8.3% -2.1% 14% 14% -8.0%
≤30d 26 +1.5% -8.2% 8% 4% -9.4%
≤90d 64 -3.9% -13.1% 14% 11% -9.8%
all 109 +1.6% -8.1% 32% 28% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 28% -9.3%
10% -16.9% 27% -18.0%
15% -24.9% 27% -25.9%
20% -32.3% 23% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $128.75 · official $128.75 (match) · 499 history records