Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:55:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
86 0x866e…a949 sports 54 markets active 10h ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$894 (-11%) realized −$894 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate65%35W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$150per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$31est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$428
7 days−$931
14 days−$921
30 days−$981
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% −$676
other 16% −$305
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-18.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -1.7% -11.0% 72% 41% -22.6%
≤30d 54 -10.4% -18.9% 65% 33% -20.5%
≤90d 54 -10.4% -18.9% 65% 33% -20.5%
all 54 -10.4% -18.9% 65% 33% -20.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.9% 33% -20.5%
10% -26.7% 13% -28.1%
15% -33.8% 7% -35.1%
20% -40.3% 4% -41.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$96 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$894
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses35 / 19
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions0
Markets (closed)54 / 54
History coverage29d
Avg bet$150
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 54 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $201 −$200 -99%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $56 −$55 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $101 −$100 -99%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 16 $100 +$15 +14%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $200 +$13 +6%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $31 +$139 +451%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $482 +$35 +7%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $85 −$25 -29%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 14 $252 +$34 +13%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $168 +$47 +28%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $5 +$1 +16%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $371 +$45 +12%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $200 +$12 +6%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $399 +$48 +12%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $508 −$506 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $97 +$19 +20%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $190 +$12 +6%
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Jun 13 $451 +$37 +8%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $501 −$465 -93%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $31 +$2 +8%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group St Jun 12 $451 +$28 +6%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $156 +$19 +12%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $240 +$11 +5%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 12 $150 +$5 +4%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $202 +$74 +37%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $181 +$41 +22%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $41 +$3 +7%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Jun 11 $102 −$93 -91%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $101 −$90 -89%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 11 $181 +$33 +18%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $101 +$29 +29%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group Jun 10 $151 +$32 +22%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs INOX Division (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Jun 10 $101 −$4 -4%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Gro Jun 10 $104 +$39 +38%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino (BO3) - Asia Masters Group C Jun 10 $50 −$1 -2%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 10 $30 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: against All authority vs RUSTEC (BO3) - European Pro L Jun 10 $80 −$80 -100%
Counter-Strike: Invicta vs L.820 (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group Stage Jun 10 $50 +$3 +6%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 09 $167 −$27 -16%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $207 +$2 +1%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group St Jun 09 $190 +$11 +6%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Mast Jun 09 $100 +$4 +4%
Counter-Strike: HEROIC Academy vs NEW VISION (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Jun 08 $37 +$4 +10%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $131 +$21 +16%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $50 +$7 +13%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 30 $18 +$16 +90%
Will LDU de Quito win on 2026-05-26? May 30 $100 +$8 +8%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 3 - 1 Arsenal FC? May 30 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 2 Arsenal FC? May 30 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $201 10h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 29¢ $56 10h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 74¢ $50 27h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 56¢ $51 27h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 41¢ $102 30h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY ex-RUBY 87¢ $100 36h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Nuclear TigeRES 94¢ $200 38h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 17¢ $24 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $31 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 97¢ $281 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 89¢ $100 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 87¢ $100 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 70¢ $35 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Natus Vincere 20¢ $11 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 91¢ $50 3d
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs BUY Alliance 89¢ $99 3d
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs BUY Alliance 90¢ $100 3d
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs BUY Alliance 82¢ $52 3d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 86¢ $5 3d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 85¢ $17 3d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 77¢ $151 3d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 94¢ $190 4d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 84¢ $181 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 95¢ $200 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 83¢ $191 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 69¢ $117 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY FURIA 95¢ $100 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY FURIA 93¢ $100 4d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 94¢ $98 4d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 85¢ $100 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 127 history records