Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:37:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
86 0x866e…6265 crypto 1740 markets active 0h ago coverage 75d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$45 (+0%) realized −$120 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate95%1686W / 94L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day23.5pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$330
7 days−$305
14 days−$333
30 days−$113
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$18
sports 6% +$212
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 351 -11.1% -19.6% 86% 6% -19.6%
≤30d 1075 -3.7% -12.9% 93% 7% -10.6%
≤90d 1780 -2.3% -11.6% 95% 4% -10.3%
all 1780 -2.3% -11.6% 95% 4% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.6% 4% -10.3%
10% ← realistic here -20.1% 1% -18.8%
15% -27.8% 0% -26.7%
20% -34.9% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$8 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$120
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses1686 / 94
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1780 / 1740
History coverage75d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day23.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1780 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Up 96¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Down 98¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Up 95¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Down 99¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Up 89¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Up 92¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Down 94¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Down 88¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Down 95¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Down 96¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Down 94¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Up 84¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Down 99¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Down 57¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Up 90¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Up 98¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Up 96¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Down 95¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Down 87¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Up 99¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Down 84¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Down 95¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Down 91¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $8 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $8 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $8 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $8 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $8 $0 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $8 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $8 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $8 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $8 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $8 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $8 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $8 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $8 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $8 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records