Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:13:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
86 0x866c…19c0 sports 120 markets active 0h ago coverage 80d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$363 (+3%) realized +$363 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate48%58W / 62L
Drawdown41%max
Avg bet$116per market
Trades / day12.5pace
Fees−$161est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$38
7 days+$72
14 days+$95
30 days+$89
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% +$64
other 42% +$32
crypto 2% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 +5.4% -4.7% 54% 15% -8.7%
≤30d 118 +2.1% -7.6% 48% 15% -8.8%
≤90d 120 +1.3% -8.3% 48% 15% -8.8%
all 120 +1.3% -8.3% 48% 15% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 15% -8.8%
10% -17.1% 12% -17.6%
15% -25.1% 8% -25.5%
20% -32.5% 8% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$7 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$363
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses58 / 62
Est. fees paid−$161
Open positions0
Markets (closed)120 / 120
History coverage80d
Avg bet$116
Trades / day12.5
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 120 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $512 −$9 -2%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $485 −$7 -1%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $60 −$1 -1%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $688 −$29 -4%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1,452 +$3 +0%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $119 −$6 -5%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $241 $0 +0%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $736 −$12 -2%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $57 +$23 +40%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $0 $0 -97%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $182 +$58 +32%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $119 +$15 +12%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $120 +$6 +5%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $179 −$3 -2%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $163 +$7 +4%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $305 −$18 -6%
Will Grêmio Novorizontino win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $35 $0 -1%
Will Clube Náutico Capibaribe win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $77 +$3 +3%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $209 +$6 +3%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $122 +$4 +3%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $129 +$2 +1%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $181 +$3 +2%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $224 +$4 +2%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $384 +$16 +4%
Will SC Recife vs. Athletic Club end in a draw? Jun 11 $41 −$21 -53%
Will SC Recife win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $305 +$27 +9%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $7 +$5 +67%
England leading at halftime? Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Will Goiás EC win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $6 $0 -4%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $60 −$1 -2%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $185 +$1 +0%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $195 +$3 +1%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 10 $101 −$7 -7%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $153 −$2 -1%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 10 $124 −$1 -1%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $40 +$1 +3%
Peru vs. Spain: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $81 −$1 -2%
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H Moneyline Jun 09 $40 +$11 +28%
Will Atlético Nacional win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $95 −$4 -4%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 4.5 Jun 08 $279 −$5 -2%
Will Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 08 $161 −$15 -10%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 Jun 08 $188 +$24 +12%
France vs. Northern Ireland: Draw at halftime? Jun 08 $81 −$14 -18%
France leading at halftime? Jun 08 $81 −$3 -3%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $45 −$4 -10%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $41 +$31 +76%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $40 +$11 +28%
Denmark leading at halftime? Jun 07 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $119 +$8 +7%
Guatemala vs. Czechia: O/U 4.5 Jun 05 $169 −$2 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 84¢ $59 18m
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 85¢ $60 18m
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 82¢ $60 19m
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 82¢ $60 19m
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 77¢ $56 19m
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 82¢ $60 19m
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 79¢ $29 20m
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 81¢ $26 20m
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 76¢ $3 20m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 85¢ $65 21m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 78¢ $60 25m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 75¢ $39 25m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 75¢ $1 25m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 75¢ $19 25m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 75¢ $3 25m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 72¢ $60 28m
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 52¢ $57 30m
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $60 30m
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 53¢ $58 30m
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $61 30m
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 49¢ $59 32m
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $61 32m
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 47¢ $58 33m
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $60 33m
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 47¢ $68 34m
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 41¢ $60 36m
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 26¢ $59 48m
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 26¢ $60 48m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 54¢ $57 51m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 56¢ $61 51m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1011 history records