Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:03:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5

score

86 0x866b…1bcd sports 16 markets active 3h ago coverage 428d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$683 (-26%) realized −$486 · open −$197

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -85% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -86% what you keep after slip

Net edge-86%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate9%1W / 10L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$165per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Fees−$3est.

Kalshi-fit62%portable

Net worth$1,803now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$150

7 days−$150

14 days−$150

30 days−$150

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-86.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
≤30d	2	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
≤90d	4	-99.5%	-99.6%	0%	0%	-99.4%
all	11	-84.8%	-86.2%	9%	0%	-86.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-86.2%	0%	-86.3%
10%	-87.6%	0%	-87.6%
15%	-88.8%	0%	-88.8%
20%	-89.9%	0%	-89.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -99% too few recent

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -85% · $-wt -85% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$0 vs −$49 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.0 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

428d coverage

Net worth$1,803

Realized−$486

Unrealized−$197

Win rate (resolved)9%

Wins / losses1 / 10

Est. fees paid−$3

Open positions5

Markets (closed)11 / 16

History coverage428d

Avg bet$165

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 5 History 11 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	1¢	1¢	$500	$458	−$42 (-8%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$400	$360	−$40 (-10%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$400	$360	−$40 (-10%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$400	$350	−$50 (-12%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	1¢	1¢	$300	$275	−$25 (-8%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	Jun 17	$51	−$50	-98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5	Jun 17	$101	−$100	-99%
Will Manchester United finish in 2nd place in the 2025-26 English Prem	Mar 20	$2	−$2	-100%
Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	Mar 20	$84	−$82	-98%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	Dec 30	$50	−$43	-85%
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	Dec 30	$50	−$38	-75%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	Dec 30	$200	−$149	-75%
Will Manchester United win on 2025-04-27?	Apr 27	$20	−$20	-100%
Will Lazio vs. Bodo/Glimt end in a draw?	Apr 17	$1	−$1	-100%
Will Athletic Club vs. Rangers end in a draw?	Apr 17	$1	−$1	-100%
Will Trump lower tariffs on China in April?	Apr 16	$22	$0	+0%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$206	2h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	0¢	$309	2h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	0¢	$309	2h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	0¢	$309	2h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$412	2h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	13¢	$51	11h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	55¢	$101	15h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	0¢	$103	18h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$103	18h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$103	18h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	0¢	$103	18h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	0¢	$103	18h
Will Manchester United finish in 2nd place in the 2025-26 English Prem	BUY Yes	7¢	$2	89d
Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	SELL Yes	0¢	$2	89d
Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	BUY Yes	5¢	$84	170d
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	SELL Yes	0¢	$7	170d
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	SELL Yes	0¢	$12	170d
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	SELL Yes	0¢	$51	170d
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	BUY Yes	1¢	$50	243d
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	BUY Yes	0¢	$50	243d
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	BUY Yes	2¢	$200	244d
Will Manchester United win on 2025-04-27?	BUY Yes	21¢	$20	417d
Will Lazio vs. Bodo/Glimt end in a draw?	BUY Yes	11¢	$1	426d
Will Athletic Club vs. Rangers end in a draw?	BUY Yes	14¢	$1	426d
Will Trump lower tariffs on China in April?	SELL No	0¢	$22	428d
Will Trump lower tariffs on China in April?	BUY No	0¢	$22	428d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,803.33 · official $1,803.33 (match) · 27 history records