Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:03:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
86 0x866b…c46e crypto 143 markets active 4d ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$183 (-24%) realized −$183 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate44%63W / 80L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day10.2pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$35
14 days−$83
30 days−$163
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% −$188
crypto 22% −$16
other 3% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-22.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -49.9% -54.7% 32% 23% -45.9%
≤30d 135 -13.0% -21.3% 44% 38% -34.1%
≤90d 143 -13.9% -22.1% 44% 38% -35.1%
all 143 -13.9% -22.1% 44% 38% -35.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.1% 38% -35.1%
10% -29.5% 29% -41.3%
15% -36.3% 18% -46.9%
20% -42.6% 15% -52.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$183
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses63 / 80
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)143 / 143
History coverage30d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day10.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 143 Trades
no open positions (37 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$1 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$1 -20%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Sri Lanka Jun 12 $11 −$11 -97%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 12 $5 $0 +6%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka - Who wi Jun 11 $2 −$2 -99%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Nigeria vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi Jun 11 $1 −$1 -82%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Nigeria vs Brazil Jun 11 $2 −$1 -42%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 11 $10 −$7 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi Jun 10 $1 −$1 -74%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Nigeria vs Malawi Jun 10 $1 −$1 -86%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: United Arab Emirates vs Malaysia Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Indonesia vs Oman Jun 10 $15 +$3 +23%
T20 Blast: Durham vs Lancashire Jun 09 $5 −$3 -61%
T20 Blast: Northamptonshire vs Worcestershire Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 09 $3 −$2 -68%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 09 $20 −$19 -95%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: China vs Saudi Arabia Jun 09 $1 +$3 +261%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 08 $3 −$2 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 08 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 08 $2 −$1 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 08 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 08 $2 −$1 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 08 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 08 $3 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 08 $2 +$1 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 08 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 08 $2 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 07 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 07 $3 $0 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +48%
T20 Blast: Middlesex vs Essex Jun 07 $1 −$1 -67%
T20 Blast: Gloucestershire vs Worcestershire Jun 07 $1 $0 -27%
T20 Blast: Somerset vs Warwickshire Jun 07 $1 $0 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland BUY Ireland 54¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Down 28¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Up 69¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 21¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Up 44¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 4d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 5¢ $5 4d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 11¢ $5 5d
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka SELL Sri Lanka 44¢ $5 5d
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 40¢ $5 5d
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka - Who wi BUY West Indies 53¢ $2 5d
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Nigeria vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi SELL Nigeria 9¢ $0 5d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 18¢ $1 5d
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Nigeria vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi BUY Nigeria 48¢ $1 5d
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Nigeria vs Brazil SELL Nigeria 34¢ $1 5d
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Nigeria vs Brazil BUY Nigeria 57¢ $2 5d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 14¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Down 48¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET SELL Down 76¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 330 history records