Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:38:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

86 0x866a…1513 sports 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 88d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$4,439 (+25%) realized +$4,460 · open −$21

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip

Net edge-12%after slip

Net WR59%break-even

Win rate59%13W / 9L

Whale WR83%big bets

Drawdown39%max

Avg bet$759per market

Trades / day1.7pace

Fees−$130est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$2,553now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days$0

7 days$0

14 days+$1,673

30 days+$1,673

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +59%

net ROI/market (all)-8.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	3	+48.3%	+34.2%	67%	67%	+37.6%
≤90d	22	+1.0%	-8.6%	59%	59%	+17.2%
all	22	+1.0%	-8.6%	59%	59%	+17.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.7 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-8.6%	59%	+17.2%
10%	-17.3%	45%	+6.0%
15%	-25.3%	41%	-4.2%
20%	-32.6%	36%	-13.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 21% · top 2 39% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +30% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +1% · $-wt +30% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 83% (≥$1,282) strong on big bets

Persistence

early -17% → late +19% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

6.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer

Win / loss size

+$580 vs −$350 · ×1.66 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.39 per $1 lost it wins $2.39

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage

Net worth$2,553

Realized+$4,460

Unrealized−$21

Win rate (resolved)59%

Wins / losses13 / 9

Whale WR (big bets)83%

Est. fees paid−$130

Open positions1

Markets (closed)22 / 23

History coverage88d

Avg bet$759

Trades / day1.7

Drawdown39%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 22 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova	Jessica Pegula	61¢	60¢	$2,574	$2,553	−$21 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner	Jun 11	$2,849	+$1,616	+57%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner	Jun 11	$146	+$274	+188%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 2 Winner	Jun 11	$222	−$217	-98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winner	May 17	$2,185	+$1,315	+60%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Liquid - Map 2 Winner	Apr 14	$286	+$34	+12%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner	Apr 14	$255	+$66	+26%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner	Apr 14	$531	+$194	+37%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Chennai Super Kings	Mar 30	$1,827	+$1,323	+72%
Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - DraculaN Playoffs	Mar 30	$34	+$20	+59%
Heat vs. Cavaliers	Mar 30	$38	−$38	-100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Sinners (BO3) - BC Game Masters Champi	Mar 30	$1,282	−$1,282	-100%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Sashi Esport (BO3) - DraculaN Playoffs	Mar 30	$389	−$388	-100%
UFC Fight Night: Marcin Tybura vs. Tyrell Fortune (Heavyweight, Prelim	Mar 30	$1,512	+$1,288	+85%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs PARIVISION - Map 2 Winner	Mar 28	$218	−$218	-100%
Mavericks vs. Nuggets	Mar 26	$17	+$3	+15%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Monte (BO3) - BC Game Masters Champion	Mar 26	$1,532	+$1,256	+82%
Counter-Strike: MINLATE vs Rebels Gaming (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #19	Mar 25	$44	+$96	+218%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - BC Game Masters C	Mar 25	$476	+$59	+12%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs 9INE (BO3) - BC Game Masters Championship Pla	Mar 25	$907	−$907	-100%
Lakers vs. Pacers	Mar 25	$18	−$18	-100%
Bulls vs. 76ers	Mar 25	$22	−$22	-100%
Thunder vs. Celtics	Mar 25	$63	−$63	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova	BUY Jessica Pegula	61¢	$1,851	1h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova	BUY Jessica Pegula	61¢	$50	1h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova	BUY Jessica Pegula	61¢	$187	1h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova	BUY Jessica Pegula	61¢	$180	1h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova	BUY Jessica Pegula	61¢	$19	1h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova	BUY Jessica Pegula	61¢	$15	1h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova	BUY Jessica Pegula	61¢	$43	1h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova	BUY Jessica Pegula	61¢	$259	1h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner	SELL Team Falcons	100¢	$4,465	9d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner	SELL G2	100¢	$420	9d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner	BUY Team Falcons	64¢	$448	9d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner	BUY Team Falcons	63¢	$971	9d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner	BUY Team Falcons	63¢	$43	9d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner	BUY Team Falcons	63¢	$13	9d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner	BUY Team Falcons	63¢	$86	9d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner	BUY Team Falcons	63¢	$541	9d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner	BUY Team Falcons	63¢	$127	9d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner	BUY Team Falcons	63¢	$321	9d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner	BUY Team Falcons	63¢	$99	9d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner	BUY Team Falcons	63¢	$199	9d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner	BUY G2	34¢	$2	9d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner	BUY G2	34¢	$46	9d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner	BUY G2	34¢	$36	9d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner	BUY G2	34¢	$9	9d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner	BUY G2	34¢	$23	9d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner	BUY G2	34¢	$30	9d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 2 Winner	BUY B8	26¢	$17	9d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 2 Winner	BUY B8	27¢	$162	9d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 2 Winner	BUY B8	25¢	$43	9d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winner	BUY Natus Vincere	62¢	$769	35d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,553.10 · official $2,553.10 (match) · 162 history records