Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:26:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
86 0x8667…1bea other 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$10 (+2%) realized +$3 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%18W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit19%portable
Net worth$138now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days+$3
14 days+$20
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% −$11
sports 24% +$21
world 2% −$10
finance 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-23.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +9.8% -0.7% 57% 57% -7.4%
≤30d 24 +2.7% -7.1% 58% 58% -5.6%
≤90d 38 -15.4% -23.5% 47% 47% -12.6%
all 38 -15.4% -23.5% 47% 47% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.5% 47% -12.6%
10% -30.8% 42% -21.0%
15% -37.5% 39% -28.6%
20% -43.6% 26% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -44% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$7 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$138
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses18 / 20
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)38 / 43
History coverage84d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit19%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Germany 86¢ 86¢ $91 $91 +$1 (+1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+25%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 23¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+22%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+20%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Jun 29 $4 +$2 +48%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $20 −$16 -80%
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $10 $0 -4%
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $10 +$11 +105%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $5 +$15 +291%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $10 +$7 +67%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $10 +$1 +11%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$3 +32%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $10 +$5 +50%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $20 +$3 +16%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $10 +$5 +46%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 +$5 +52%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$4 +44%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $15 +$10 +67%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$7 +70%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +48%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $10 −$10 -98%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April? Apr 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-15? Apr 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-15? Apr 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? Apr 16 $10 +$6 +57%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-14? Apr 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? Apr 15 $10 +$8 +79%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $10 +$8 +79%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $23 +$31 +134%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 86¢ $6 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance SELL Brazil 100¢ $6 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 86¢ $85 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Brazil 67¢ $4 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 8¢ $4 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 2h
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 65¢ $10 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 3h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 39h
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 39h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 39h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 39h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 2d
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 3d
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 3d
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 90¢ $10 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 3d
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $10 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $9 6d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $10 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 7d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $138.37 · official $138.37 (match) · 77 history records