Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:25:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

Chart Positions 22 History 43 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$136
7 days+$136
14 days+$136
30 days+$136
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $11,320 $12,179 +$859 (+8%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $10,500 $10,947 +$447 (+4%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $5,000 $7,911 +$2,911 (+58%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $8,000 $7,305 −$695 (-9%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $6,500 $6,241 −$259 (-4%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $6,000 $5,965 −$35 (-1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2,880 $2,701 −$179 (-6%)
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 81¢ 86¢ $2,167 $2,311 +$144 (+7%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,000 $1,139 +$139 (+14%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,000 $1,038 +$39 (+4%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,000 $1,033 +$33 (+3%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,000 $1,021 +$21 (+2%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,000 $989 −$11 (-1%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,000 $985 −$15 (-1%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,000 $976 −$24 (-2%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,000 $972 −$28 (-3%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,000 $958 −$42 (-4%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,000 $950 −$50 (-5%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,000 $944 −$56 (-6%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,000 $944 −$55 (-6%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,000 $900 −$100 (-10%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,000 $875 −$125 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $1,030 +$195 +19%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $1,030 −$59 -6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? Apr 16 $9,870 +$48 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Apr 16 $9,200 +$200 +2%
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 03 $158 +$42 +27%
US government shutdown in 2025? Apr 03 $200 −$200 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Apr 03 $320 −$320 -100%
Will Trump meet Pope Leo XIV before August? Apr 03 $111 −$111 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Apr 03 $300 −$300 -100%
Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch? Mar 24 $151 −$26 -17%
Will Ethereum reach $4600 in August? Aug 08 $6,801 −$1,222 -18%
Will Bitcoin reach $125K in August? Aug 08 $13,000 −$1,072 -8%
Will Bitcoin reach $120K in August? Aug 08 $5,000 −$1,793 -36%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2025? Aug 07 $1,000 +$136 +14%
Will Solana dip to $100 in July? Aug 01 $4,550 +$242 +5%
Will Ethereum dip to $1700 in July? Aug 01 $9,500 +$500 +5%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in July? Aug 01 $9,790 +$210 +2%
Will Trump increase sanctions on Russia before July? Jul 02 $1,111 −$1,111 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2200 on July 1? Jul 02 $100 +$14 +14%
Will Ethereum dip to $2000 in June? Jul 02 $2,000 +$174 +9%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in June? Jul 02 $10,000 +$275 +3%
Will Ethereum dip to $1800 in June? Jul 02 $11,000 +$283 +3%
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. before July? Jun 05 $100 +$35 +35%
Will the candidate from the Democratic Party (DPK) win the South Korea Jun 05 $100 +$19 +19%
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 05 $177 +$65 +37%
Will Lee Jun-seok be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 05 $11,111 +$466 +4%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? Jun 03 $300 −$300 -100%
India-Pakistan declare war before June? May 14 $200 +$29 +14%
Will Trump lower tariffs on China by July 31? May 14 $222 +$55 +25%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy before July? May 13 $200 −$5 -2%
Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? May 09 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Pietro Parolin be the next pope? May 09 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Peter Turkson be the next pope? May 09 $100 −$100 -100%
India military strike on Pakistan by Friday? May 08 $100 −$100 -100%
India military action against Pakistan before June? May 08 $555 −$555 -100%
Will the next Government of Australia be a Labor majority? May 04 $111 +$49 +44%
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? May 03 $222 +$130 +59%
Will Trump audit Ukraine aid before May? May 03 $333 +$676 +203%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by March 31? Apr 01 $3,333 +$1,484 +44%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2025 meeting? Apr 01 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? Mar 08 $5,085 −$1,479 -29%
Bitcoin above $84,000 on March 7? Mar 03 $100 +$47 +47%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 01 $4,900 +$618 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 46% −$1,595
other 35% +$2,062
finance 10% +$248
politics 7% +$125
world 1% −$1,026
culture 1% +$144
economics 0% −$80
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1,225 3h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $970 3h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $430 18h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $600 18h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1,030 18h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1,030 18h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1,030 18h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1,030 18h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1,030 18h
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1,030 18h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1,030 18h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1,030 18h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $881 18h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $149 18h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1,030 18h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1,029 18h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1,029 18h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1,029 18h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1,029 18h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1,029 18h
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 82¢ $2,018 31d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? SELL No 99¢ $9,918 56d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL No 94¢ $9,400 56d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? BUY No 92¢ $9,200 59d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? BUY No 99¢ $9,870 59d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $880 61d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2,000 61d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5,000 61d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1,000 61d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5,000 61d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-23.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +6.6% -3.6% 50% 50% -3.6%
≤30d 2 +6.6% -3.6% 50% 50% -3.6%
≤90d 10 -37.5% -43.4% 40% 20% -11.7%
all 43 -15.6% -23.6% 56% 35% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.6% 35% -11.7%
10% ← realistic here -30.9% 21% -20.2%
15% -37.6% 14% -27.9%
20% -43.7% 5% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $69,285.76 · official $69,285.77 (match) · 207 history records