Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:38:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
86 0x8660…d46b other 53 markets active 15h ago coverage 301d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$64 (+3%) realized +$64 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate38%20W / 33L
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$4
14 days+$47
30 days+$47
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 72% +$48
other 17% +$16
politics 5% −$3
sports 3% +$2
culture 2% $0
tech 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-4.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -1.6% -11.0% 36% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 15 +3.7% -6.2% 40% 7% -7.0%
≤90d 15 +3.7% -6.2% 40% 7% -7.0%
all 53 +5.6% -4.5% 38% 8% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.5% 8% -6.7%
10% -13.6% 6% -15.7%
15% -22.0% 6% -23.8%
20% -29.6% 4% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 87% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×3.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.33 per $1 lost it wins $4.33
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

301d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$64
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses20 / 33
Open positions0
Markets (closed)53 / 53
History coverage301d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 53 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $102 −$1 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $73 +$4 +5%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $250 −$3 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 14 $88 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $55 +$1 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $413 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $12 −$1 -8%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $3 $0 -14%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $176 −$2 -1%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $103 −$1 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $70 +$1 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $69 +$51 +74%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $62 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $57 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $125 −$1 -1%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 19 $15 $0 +1%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Dec 12 $8 +$20 +270%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Dec 04 $16 $0 +2%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $5 $0 +0%
Panthers vs. 49ers Nov 26 $10 +$2 +19%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $4 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 21 $20 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 20 $21 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will Taylor Swift be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Nov 18 $10 $0 +1%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Nov 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump pardon Diddy by Friday? Oct 24 $10 $0 -0%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025 Oct 23 $10 $0 +1%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Oct 05 $7 $0 +4%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Oct 01 $2 +$1 +37%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 30 $14 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Sep 30 $14 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Sep 30 $13 +$1 +5%
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 27 $13 $0 +0%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Aug 27 $26 −$3 -13%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2025 US Open? Aug 22 $7 $0 -0%
Will Atalanta win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 21 $32 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Aug 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 20 $2 $0 -3%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 20 $15 $0 +2%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 20 $14 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 20 $13 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Aug 20 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 19 $14 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 70¢ $4 14h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 70¢ $23 14h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 70¢ $35 14h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 70¢ $39 14h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 71¢ $31 17h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 71¢ $71 17h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $15 28h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $4 28h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $18 31h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $58 35h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $28 37h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $28 37h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $44 44h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $55 44h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $11 46h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $91 46h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $88 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $10 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $78 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 55¢ $3 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 55¢ $33 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 55¢ $8 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 55¢ $3 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 55¢ $3 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 55¢ $7 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 54¢ $18 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 54¢ $18 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 54¢ $18 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $9 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $86 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 231 history records